British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on Tuesday that the United Kingdom will increase defense spending to at least 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2030. It will mean approximately $90 billion in additional spending by 2030. Sunak has also announced an additional $622 million U.K. aid allotment for Ukraine.
Sunak’s statement appears precipitated, at least in part, by Labour Party opposition leader Keir Starmer’s recent promise that he would increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP “as soon as resources allow.” The U.K. will hold an election by January 2025 in which Labour is heavily favored to win.
The additional money will primarily be used to plug deep black holes in existing procurement budgets, to bolster the U.K.’s munitions industrial base, and to develop directed energy weapons, air defense systems, and anti-armor missiles. That munitions industrial base concern is urgent amid the dramatic shortfalls in artillery rounds Europe is now experiencing amid its efforts to support Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Yet these defense boosts also serve three other important political purposes.
First, they signal the U.K.’s recognition that any second Trump administration is likely to heavily judge the value of allies by their willingness to invest in defense. While former president Donald Trump has stated that he would “100%” defend a NATO ally that meets the alliance’s 2%-of-GDP minimum spending target (a qualification the U.K. already meets), he has also called for allies to spend more than 2% of GDP on defense.
Considering the recent dinner between Trump and Foreign Secretary David Cameron at Mar-a-Lago and Sunak’s announcement of boosted U.K. aid to Ukraine just after Congressional passage of its own long-delayed Ukraine aid bill, it is clear that the U.K. is trying to get ahead of a possible Trump victory. The intent is to cement the special relationship before Trump reenters office, rather than, as would be the case with France’s Emmanuel Macron, having to conduct damage control after Trump takes office. (Macron has spent the last four years criticizing Trump.)
Second, the U.K. also knows that any second Biden term in office or Trump return will see the U.S. increasingly viewing China as its preeminent security concern. In turn, with this funding also helping to address the Royal Navy’s budget shortfalls, it will also support U.S. efforts to better deter Chinese aggression. The U.K. is fully aware that the U.S. sees great benefit in the potential deployment of its Astute-class submarines, Type 45 air defense destroyers, and aircraft carriers in any war with China.
Finally, this announcement will positively increase pressure on other NATO members to spend more on defense. While Poland, Greece, Finland, and the Baltic States are also setting positive spending examples, others are proceeding more cautiously. France has recently enacted a defense budget boost and pledged increased support for Ukraine. Still, Macron’s commitment to his rhetoric is an open question. At the same time, other NATO powers such as Germany, Spain, and Belgium continue to neglect their defense obligations. Germany, for example, talks a big game but then bows to Russia whenever Moscow ups its threatening rhetoric.
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Top line: NATO will not survive in its present form unless more NATO members are more willing to bear more share of the alliance’s common burdens. Common interests are not enough. Over the long term, a military alliance requires both common interests and the proof of those common interests via common action. As an extension, the U.K.’s action today will boost NATO’s means of deterring and defeating Russia in any future war. At the margin, it will also boost the deterrence of China.
All other concerns notwithstanding, that makes this announcement manifestly positive news.
