Pollster Scott Rasmussen has taken the first poll on the 2010 Senate race in Indiana—a race that until the last couple of weeks no one thought would be seriously contested. Rasmussen shows Democratic incumbent Evan Bayh trailing Republican Congressman Mike Pence 47%-44% and leading former Congressman John Hostettler 44%-41% and state Senator Martin Stutzman 45%-33%.

These are astounding numbers. A general rule in polling is that what an incumbent gets in a poll he gets in a general election. Everyone knows him; those not voting for him now are not likely to vote for him later. This is particularly the case with Evan Bayh, who was elected secretary of state of Indiana in 1986 at age 30, then was elected governor of Indiana in 1988 and 1992 (and saw a Democrat hold the governorship in 1996) and who was elected senator from Indiana in 1998 (when incumbent Dan Coats retired rather than face Bayh) and 2004. Bayh has to be universally known in Indiana, and over the years he has built a reputation as a moderate Democrat, which has helped him win in a state which voted Republican in every presidential election from 1968 to 2004 and which voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by the narrow margin of 50%-49%.