One key similarity in the Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey is that in each case the candidate who was perceived as running the more negative campaign lost. When exit pollsters in both states asked voters whether one candidate had attacked the other unfairly during the campaign, the results are striking.
In Virginia, 65 percent of all voters said Democrat Creigh Deeds attacked Republican Bob McDonnell unfairly, while 51 percent said McDonnell attacked Deeds unfairly. (Part of the electorate believed both sides launched unfair attacks on the other.) Just 26 percent of voters said Deeds did not attack unfairly, while 40 percent said McDonnell did not make unfair attacks.
Deeds’ negative campaigning moved into high gear after the Washington Post began a series of reports on a thesis McDonnell wrote in 1989 in which McDonnell expressed socially conservative views. After breaking the story in August, the Post ran 51 stories mentioning the thesis in the days leading up to the election. Following the paper’s lead, Deeds ran a number of tough ads portraying McDonnell as a right-wing extremist.
It didn’t work, and it appears the reaction against Deeds’ campaigning was strongest among independent voters. Die-hard partisans on both sides rarely condemn their candidate for going too negative. But McDonnell won big among independents — 66 percent to 33 percent.– and those are the voters most likely to be attuned to the issue of negative campaigning.
In New Jersey, the question of negative campaigning took on an almost comic tone with ads from Democrat Jon Corzine going so far as to make insinuations about Republican Chris Christie’s weight. On Election Day, 73 percent of all voters said Corzine attacked Christie unfairly, while 62 percent said Christie attacked Corzine unfairly. Just 22 percent said Corzine did not make unfair attacks, while 33 percent said Christie did not. And just like McDonnell in Virginia, Christie won big among independents, with 60 percent to Corzine’s 30 percent.
