Ukraine’s fate is in the hands of the world’s three superpowers: China, Russia, and the United States. To glimpse Ukraine’s future, we should look at how past superpower conflicts ended.

Throughout the 45-year Cold War between the West and the Soviet Union, superpower conflicts were generally indirect, usually covert proxy wars waged by guerrilla groups and freedom fighters. Low-intensity conflicts raged in Latin America, Africa, and Asia without directly involving superpower militaries. Before Ukraine, only two superpower conflicts turned hot: Korea and Vietnam. In each case, direct military involvement by superpowers was eventually resolved through negotiations. Neither conflict ended quickly or cleanly.