The front line in Ukraine remains uncertain. Positions shift by meters, not miles. Both armies are stretched thin. Still, Russia failed to achieve its main summer battlefield objectives.
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russia has captured roughly 1,300 square miles and 130 settlements since March, half of what Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed. But even these numbers confuse reality: after nearly a year of fighting, Russia has not taken a single major Ukrainian city.
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Russia so far controls 70% of Ukraine’s southeastern Donetsk Region. Its goal is to capture the rest. It’s not succeeding. President Volodymyr Zelensky says that Ukrainian forces have liberated around 62 square miles and seven settlements near the fiercely contested town of Dobropillia, northwest of Donetsk city. This is where some of the heaviest fighting of the summer has taken place. Even if these gains are modest, they show that after months of pressure, Ukraine continues to hold the ground and, in some places, push back.
For Russia, the only notable gain, the small Donetsk region town of Chasiv Yar, came after 16 months of battle. It also came at enormous cost in Russian casualties and left much of the settlement in ruins. Elsewhere, Russian troops have stalled or been pushed back.
According to the Ukrainian military’s top officer, Oleksandr Syrskyi, roughly 712,000 Russian troops are currently deployed in Ukraine along a 1,250-kilometer front. Still, British intelligence estimates that Russian casualties in 2025 alone have reached around 332,000. Ukraine’s military reports that Russia loses 1,000 soldiers a day. Western intelligence agencies assess that the total killed and wounded on the Russian side now stands at over one million.
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True, Ukraine faces its own challenges. The Kiel Institute reported that Western military aid decreased by 43% in July and August compared to the first half of the year, as European allies debate who will provide funds for purchasing U.S. weapons for Ukraine. Manpower is another persistent concern. Ukraine is struggling to replenish units depleted by attrition and rotation gaps. Recruitment has slowed, morale is uneven, and commanders admit that experienced troops are increasingly hard to replace.
But the map looks much as it did before June. Moscow’s summer push was meant to deliver momentum and force Ukraine to negotiate on its terms. But the central goal of the offensive to control all of Donetsk remains far from reach. Russia’s frontline pressure and off-the-front bombings have not broken Ukraine.
Put simply, Kyiv is holding the line.
