For half a century, the Mediterranean island of Cyprus has been Europe’s forgotten conflict. It’s been divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded after a coup backed by Greece. Today, Greek Cypriots control the south, a member of the European Union, while the Turkish-occupied north is recognized only by Ankara. A United Nations buffer zone cuts through the capital, Nicosia, separating the two sides by barbed wire and checkpoints.
Every U.S. president since Jimmy Carter has largely ignored Cyprus. The U.N. has hosted endless rounds of peace talks that have led nowhere. The division has settled into a semi-comfortable stalemate, with both sides becoming less enthusiastic about finding a solution. Past attempts to reunify Cyprus have repeatedly collapsed. In 2004, a U.N.-backed proposal was approved by Turkish Cypriots but overwhelmingly rejected by Greek Cypriots, who feared security risks and Turkish influence. The last serious effort came in 2017 in Switzerland, where negotiations between Greece, Turkey, and both Cypriot sides broke down over the question of Turkish troops and security guarantees. These same problems continue to block a deal today.
But the ground is shifting. Last weekend, Tufan Erhurman, a moderate candidate, defeated hard-liner Ersin Tatar in elections in the north. Erhurman campaigned on finding a solution with the Greek Cypriot government after years of deadlock and nationalist rhetoric. His victory marks a rare moment of optimism on an island. For Turkish Cypriots, exhausted by political isolation and worried about being outnumbered by Turkish settlers, his win represents a chance to rethink relations with the south.
The timing is significant. Earlier this year, U.S. Air Force experts assessed the air base in Paphos to see if it could support humanitarian and logistical operations in the region. The plan is to improve infrastructure so that the base could accommodate a wider range of U.S. aircraft during evacuations or regional crises. Washington has also looked at using Britain’s Akrotiri base for regional crisis response. As Henry Kissinger once described it, Cyprus functions as “an unthinkable aircraft carrier,” positioned within reach of Lebanon, Israel, and the wider Middle East. That geography explains why Washington could find it interesting to invest in the island.
Shift is taking place not only in the north but in the south as well. Under President Nikos Christodoulides, the government is seeking closer ties with Washington and Brussels, a break from the country’s soft alignment with Russia, which for decades served as both a diplomatic partner and financial backer. Nicosia has declared its desire to join NATO, cracked down on illicit Russian money in the country, and sought closer ties with Israel.
As the south turns westward, the north remains firmly under Turkey’s control. About 40,000 Turkish soldiers are still based there, and Turkey pays most of the region’s bills, from government salaries to energy supplies and new construction. Ankara sees the island as part of its security zone in the eastern Mediterranean and uses it for military purposes. In recent years, Turkey has built new bases and a drone site in the north, strengthening its presence. The local authorities rely heavily on Turkey for money and political backing, which means that no progress toward reunification can happen without Ankara’s approval.
That’s why the peace process has failed: No one has ever offered Turkey anything worth giving up its military foothold and power projection. President Donald Trump may be exactly what this frozen conflict needs. He managed to end decadeslong enmity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Cyprus can be next.
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Trump could offer Ankara what the U.N. never could, such as increased defense cooperation or trade or energy deals backed by European support, in exchange for the pullback of Turkish troops and a revived power-sharing plan for the island.
For decades, Cyprus has been the diplomats’ graveyard, a safe conflict in which a solution always appeared near but never could be reached. If the Trump White House chooses to engage, it could turn that stalemate into a rare foreign-policy success and give new momentum to ending one of Europe’s longest divisions.
