From the moment Israel and Iran agreed to a U.S.-imposed ceasefire in June, ending a 12-day air war that the United States itself participated in, the Iranian nuclear issue has taken the form of one long, never-ending soap opera.

As far as we can tell, Iran’s 400-kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains buried somewhere underneath the rubble of Fordow and Natanz, the country’s two major uranium enrichment facilities, which were heavily damaged by U.S. airstrikes. President Donald Trump continues to insist that Iran’s nuclear program is “obliterated.” And the Iranians remain caught between a state of defiance and resignation, with hardliners and moderates unsure of whether to proactively push for another round of talks or to bunker down in preparation for more war.