Former Army helicopter pilot Matt Van Epps bucked the recent trend of right-wing electoral disasters on Tuesday, defeating Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn in the special House election for my district, Tennessee‘s 7th Congressional District, after Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) announced his resignation this summer.
Amid the bizarre pattern of nationalizing local politics, middle Tennessee found itself the latest center of attention on the national political stage. Outside of bachelorette parties, country music, and having one of the worst NFL teams in the league, Nashville is not used to that kind of scrutiny.
While Van Epps won by almost 16,000 votes, it was far from a win for the Republican Party. Why? After all, a Republican just won after the GOP stared down losses, both electoral and policy-based, in Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Surely a victory is something to celebrate?
Well, unfortunately, Van Epps only won by single digits against a candidate who said she “hates Nashville” in a supposedly deep-red district in a deep-red state that President Donald Trump won by 22 points just over a year ago.
Nevertheless, Trump sent out his stereotypical post-victory marketing campaign, boasting that “the Radical Left Democrats threw everything at [Epps], including Millions of Dollars,” and that this was “another great night for the Republican Party!!!” But “another” implies that the Republican Party is in the habit of experiencing great nights. Sorry, but that is just not the reality.
The GOP is in trouble. Republicans are losing competitive races and barely squeaking by in ones they should dominate without even breaking a sweat. No amount of energetic Truth Social posts can paper over the widening cracks in MAGA.
As we helplessly trudge toward the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican majority in the House is thinner than the starring cast of Wicked. Given that midterm elections tend to be brutal for the party in power, it’s almost certain the Democratic Party will control the House come 2027.
It should not be this difficult for Republicans to win in districts and states as conservative as they get. Republican margins were also cut in two in Florida’s April special elections. So it’s beyond foolish to assume that the midterm elections will be anything less than a bloodbath.
REPUBLICANS RELISH IN MATT VAN EPPS’S WIN: ‘CAN’T DENY THE DONALD TRUMP EFFECT’
Trump should care because he will be placed squarely in lame duck territory and faced with a handful of impeachment attempts that are already waiting in the wings. The rest of the Republican Party should care because, unlike Trump, they will continue the fight in future elections.
Perhaps some elected officials prefer playing the role of powerless underdogs rather than focusing on actual governance. But unless Republicans want to return to an era of fecklessness under complete Democratic control, they need to find a way to turn the tide. Right now, the tide is blue.
Ian Haworth is a syndicated columnist. Follow him on X (@ighaworth) or Substack.
