One year after Syrian rebel forces stormed Damascus and brought down President Bashar al Assad’s regime, the struggle to shape a new political order has intensified.
The fall of Assad in late 2024 created a rare opening to reshape Syria’s regional alignments and curb Russia’s long-term influence on Damascus. Twelve months on, however, Washington has yet to articulate a clear strategy. And Moscow is moving to retain its position of power.
Russia had been Assad’s most critical lifeline, providing the airpower, ground support, and political protection that kept his regime from falling. Moscow’s 2015 intervention in the Syrian Civil War came with cruel abuses: bringing cities to the ground, destroying hospitals, schools, and civilian districts. Following Assad’s fall, however, the Kremlin is now seeking to make inroads with President Ahmed al Sharaa’s new government. Moscow seems poised to retain its asset that matters the most: control over Syria’s Mediterranean coastline.
Russia had run two bases in the country under Assad’s regime: the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim Air Base. These have been critical for the Kremlin to project force not only across the region but also into Africa, serving as logistical hubs for operations in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali, and so on. Moscow understandably wants the bases back in operation. Sharaa visited Moscow in October and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the future of bilateral ties.
The United States, by contrast, has struggled to define its goals. Washington speaks in broad terms about supporting stability and preventing extremist resurgence, but there is no articulated policy for reducing Russia’s influence or shaping Syria’s political direction. Nor is there a clear U.S. offer that would persuade Damascus not to hedge its bets. If you are Syria’s leader, it’s hard to rely on American backing when U.S. engagement in the region is limited and unreliable. Moscow, on the other hand, appears to be a more predictable future partner, even if it was a mortal enemy just a year ago.
For the new ruler in Damascus, the immediate challenge is consolidating authority amid rival factions and contesting regional interests. Sharaa’s challenges include violence directed at Alawite communities along the coast, security tensions and periodic clashes involving Druze groups in the south, and negotiations with Kurdish authorities over autonomy. These pressures complicate his efforts to control the security apparatus and establish a reliable chain of command.
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Sharaa needs support from the U.S. to stabilize the transition and secure his own position. But once he gets that support, it’s still hard to say what course he intends to follow.
For its part, the Trump administration has lifted sanctions on Damascus and is attempting to broker an agreement between Syria and Israel, but those efforts have so far produced no tangible results. And Washington has overlooked a far larger historic opportunity: the chance to work alongside Syrians to curtail the Kremlin’s foothold in the country.
