Taiwan faces the growing threat of an invasion by China. Beijing dwarfs Taipei in nearly every respect. But a very American solution can help Taiwan better deter a Chinese invasion. Taiwan, a former U.S. national security adviser has observed, should develop a “gun culture.”
The proposal might seem unconventional, but it is desperately needed. Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping has called for his People’s Liberation Army to be able to invade Taiwan by 2027. By all accounts, the PLA is prepared to do so. China has embarked upon the largest military buildup in modern history. Since coming to power in 1949, the CCP regime has coveted Taiwan, now a free nation and an important U.S. partner. But Taiwan’s importance to U.S. policymakers extends beyond its status as a democracy or the fact that it is a leading producer of the semiconductors that drive the modern economy.
Should Taiwan fall, important allies, both in the region and elsewhere, may start to hedge their bets in the emerging rivalry between China and the United States. American defense spending will skyrocket, and the world will become a vastly more dangerous place. The key is deterrence. But the clock is ticking.
Taiwan faces significant obstacles. Beijing’s military and economic power is far greater, and China’s industrial and economic power affords it leverage over those who might dare to intervene. Nor is Taiwan’s military where it needs to be. Taiwan invested in costly weapons systems that the PLA would likely dismantle with ease. And its armed forces are severely understaffed. More recently, Taiwan has boosted its defense spending and instituted reforms, including expanding mandatory conscription from four months to one year. But Taiwanese capabilities are a far cry from where they must be.
Still, there is another way to make Taiwan stronger. Taiwanese civilians can arm themselves, driving up the costs for any possible Chinese invaders.
Robert O’Brien, a former U.S. national security adviser to President Donald Trump, has argued that Taiwan needs “shooting clubs like they have in eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Poland.” Taiwan needs to develop a “gun culture” complete with “shooting ranges” where they “teach regular citizens how to use Chinese weapons.” Advance training is essential, since handing out weapons after the Chinese invasion would be nearly pointless if they weren’t familiar with them.
In 2021, O’Brien and Alexander Gray, a former chief of staff to the National Security Council, wrote in the Wall Street Journal that a “well-armed civilian population could turn any invasion of Taiwan into a lengthy and costly affair.” Along with other steps, this could deny Beijing a quick victory. A prolonged and protracted invasion, complete with rising Chinese casualties, would put unwanted pressure on Chinese leaders.
The idea has merit. It would be cost-effective, requiring little from the U.S. and other regional allies. It is both practical and common sense.
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Yet there are hurdles. Unlike the U.S., gun ownership in Taiwan is extremely rare. The country has very strict laws, making firearms nearly unobtainable. As one reporter noted in 2021, “Using a gun is taboo in Taiwan.”
But this might be one of many things that Taiwan will have to change to protect its freedom. And it could impart a spirit of defiance that might also come in handy if the worst occurs.
The writer is a Washington D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst. His views are his own.
