No public opinion organization has been polling presidential head-to-head match ups longer than the Gallup. Their archive of polling results provides a great benchmark to provide some historical context to today’s race. Which is why the debut of Gallup’s daily tracking poll pitting President Obama against Mitt Romney is such bad news for the White House incumbent.
According to Gallup’s first full sample of daily tracking results, Obama trails Romney 45 percent to 47 percent. A two-point deficit may seem inconsequential at first glance, but when you look back through history at how incumbent’s have fared in the past, the result starts looking much more ominous for Obama. Every president through 1980, even President Carter and President Bush who lost reelection, led their opponent in Gallup’s April polling. President Ford, who lost to President Carter 50 – 48, is the only incumbent to trail his challenger in April.
Yesterday’s poll is just one snapshot. And Gallup is just one polling organization. CNN, for example, posted their own poll showing Obama up 9 yesterday (although CNN also failed to post the partisan breakdown of their sample).
But even one snapshot is enough to tell us that, by historical standards, Obama is under-performing.
Campaign 2012
Romney: ABC’s Diane Sawyer chose to spend her time in an exclusive interview with Mitt and Ann Romney asking the couple about one time in 1983 when the family dog got diarrhea.
Obama: Obama’s campaign and the Democratic Party raised $53 million in March campaign manager Jim Messina announced in a video Monday. Obama had raised $45 million in February.
Indiana: National Review endorsed State Treasurer Richard Mourdock over incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar: “Lugar is a decent man who has in the past been more reliable than not on a number of important conservative issues. Arlen Specter he is not. But we can do better. Mr. Mourdock strikes us, for instance, as a man who would not cast votes, as Lugar did, to confirm Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. Nor would he co-sponsor the DREAM Act, support the auto bailouts, or oppose the Vitter amendment to limit taxpayer-funded abortion, as Lugar did and does.”
Wisconsin: Gov. Scott Walker is at or above 50 percent against all of his potential Democratic opponents for the June 5th recall election. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett leads all his Democratic rivals at 38 percent for the May 28th primary.
Around the Bigs
The Wall Street Journal, ‘Buffett Rule’ Tax Plan Fails in a Senate Test Vote: The Senate rejected the centerpiece of President Obama’s reelection campaign yesterday, voting 51 – 45 against the Buffett Rule. Sixty votes were needed to proceed on the measure which would have raised taxes on those making more than $1 million a year.
Bloomberg, Obama bid to end ‘too big to fail’ undercut as banks grow: Two years after President Barack Obama vowed to eliminate the danger of financial institutions becoming “too big to fail,” the nation’s largest banks are bigger than they were before the nation’s credit markets seized up and required unprecedented bailouts by the government.
The Washington Post, Panetta said he regretted cost to taxpayers for trips home to California: Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Monday that he regrets that his frequent flights home to California on a military jet have cost taxpayers more than $800,000 since July. He gave no indication, however, that he would end the weekend commutes.
The Washington Post, More military personnel might have been involved in misconduct before Obama’s trip: A preliminary investigation by the Defense Department, found that more military personnel than initially thought might have been involved with Obama’s Secret Service scandal. Already, 11 Secret Service agents have been placed on leave amid allegations they entertained prostitutes.
The New York Times, Disabilities Act Used by Lawyers in Flood of Suits: A small cadre of lawyers are using New York City’s age and architectural quirkiness as the foundation for a flood of lawsuits citing violations of the Americans With Disabilities Act.
The New York Times, Afghan Assaults Signal Evolution of a Militant Foe: Western military and intelligence officials acknowledged on Monday that they were surprised by the scale and sophistication of the synchronized attacks in Afghanistan on Sunday, seeing it as a troubling step in the evolution of the Haqqani Taliban network from a crime mob to a leading militant force.
Rigthy Playbook
AEI‘s James Pethokoukis posts a chart showing how large the 2012 taxmageddon tax hike really is.
At The Corner, Patrick Brennan notes that while Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz has been pressing Romney to release 12 years of tax returns, she has never released a single one of hers.
RedState‘s Erick Erickson details the Senate Republican leadership fight against Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis.
Lefty Playbook
The Washington Post‘s Jonathan Capehart says Republican attacks on Obama over fuel prices are running out of gas.
ThinkProgress notes that Romney refused to tell ABC News whether or not he would have signed the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009.
Mother Jones‘ Kevin Drum is still pursuing the Bush National Guard story.
