Cory Gardner is considered a dead man walking by most election prognosticators. The Republican senator from Colorado is defending the bluest seat among GOP senators in a year that’s looking increasingly worse for the party.
Gardner is up against arguably the strongest competitor he could have faced: former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper, a Democrat, is coming fresh out of a tough primary against a progressive challenger, which left him with a few minor wounds. For example, Hickenlooper was found guilty of contempt by a state panel for defying a subpoena regarding his violation of state ethics rules — it found Hickenlooper had illegally received gifts in violation of a state ban. Hickenlooper also came under fire for his weirdly out-of-touch handling of a question on Black Lives Matter (he referred to “the shooting of George Floyd”) and for comparing elected officials in 2014 to people on slave ships.
Gardner, meanwhile, has both had to show that he is an active and involved senator and keep his distance from President Trump, who lost the state in 2016 (albeit narrowly). In the view of many, Trump has been more of an anchor than a life raft in a state that has been trending leftward. To that end, Gardner’s latest campaign ad touts his writing of the Great American Outdoors Act, which set apart funds for the maintenance of federal lands, in a six-figure cable, broadcast, and digital ad buy.
Although Gardner’s approval numbers have faltered in the state, Hickenlooper’s have as well since he entered the Senate race. Though he was a popular governor, Hickenlooper is a flawed candidate, even saying he wouldn’t make a good senator during his brief 2020 presidential run. And races tend to tighten up down the stretch, meaning the current deficit Gardner is facing could be whittled down between now and November.
Gardner still has a path to reelection, but it is one that must be driven perfectly. Even then, it’s possible he can’t overcome the political tides. But Gardner hasn’t lost an election in his political career, and 2020 will be his biggest test yet.
