President Donald Trump used the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday to unveil his so-called “Board of Peace” for Gaza. It comprises around twenty signatory countries and will oversee the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), headed by Ali Shaath, a former deputy minister in the Palestinian Authority. The NCAG will oversee the day-to-day administration of the Palestinian enclave.
Western European leaders are conspicuously absent from the board, having expressed reservations over its mandate and international legitimacy. Still, the Board of Peace will supposedly oversee Phase II of the Gaza Peace Plan. This part of the plan centers on a two-pronged strategy that seeks to pair international oversight with local administration.
Yet many uncertainties remain regarding the plan’s feasibility.
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First of all, there’s the question as to whether Phase I has even been completed. Key issues remain unresolved, notably Hamas’ full disarmament and the return of the last remaining hostage’s body. Despite Trump’s warning that Hamas must immediately demilitarize, enforcement mechanisms remain unclear, particularly given that Hamas retains thousands of weapons and fighters.
According to Tom Warrick, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state, the administration is already pressing ahead despite these gaps. “They’ve started meetings with the Palestinian technocratic committee,” Warrick said, noting that momentum now depends less on political declarations than on resources. “The real question is how much money will actually be available.” At Davos, Trump unveiled an ambitious reconstruction plan for Gaza, with futuristic-like skyscrapers that would cost $25 billion, but it remains unclear who will pay for them.
Security arrangements are even less settled. While Morocco and Indonesia have been mentioned as potential contributors to an international stabilization force (ISF), Warrick cautioned that no firm troop commitments have been made. “Countries keep asking for more clarity on the rules of engagement. Nobody has said, ‘We’re ready to fly troops tomorrow.’”
Under the current plan, international forces — if deployed — would move into Gaza east of a designated yellow line, an artificial border set up during the ceasefire agreement to allow Israeli withdrawal to the east of it. Only once they are able to provide security would the IDF withdraw to Gaza’s borders. But Israel remains unconvinced that Hamas will ever fully disarm. “The Israeli government doesn’t believe Hamas is going to be disarmed,” Warrick explained. “They’ve effectively given Hamas until March to begin turning over weapons. If that doesn’t happen, Netanyahu wants Trump’s permission for the IDF to do it.”
Such a move, Warrick warned, would likely derail Phase II altogether. “Withdrawing and then re-entering Gaza is a completely different set of issues,” he said, adding that Israel is skeptical the ISF will materialize quickly enough to prevent that scenario.
The administration’s hope, Warrick said, is to sequence disarmament — first heavy weapons and rockets, then tunnels — while jump-starting reconstruction in areas under ISF control. “The idea is to create hope,” he said, “and then, through reconstruction and control of funds, persuade individual Hamas fighters that they have a better deal with a new Gaza than with Hamas.”
If Hamas refuses to relinquish its small arms and Israel delays withdrawal, Phase II will face obvious obstacles. Skirmishes could persist even as the Board of Peace attempts to oversee reconstruction in coordination with the NCAG. Whether such an arrangement can produce a peaceful transition — and lasting security for both Gazans and Israelis — remains an open question.
Alissa Pavia, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Middle East Programs
