U.S. military deployments and President Donald Trump’s rhetoric indicate that strikes against Iran will occur in the near future. Perhaps even this weekend or early next week.
Trump warned on Truth Social this week that “a massive Armada is heading to Iran… Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal — NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS — one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!” He doubled down on this threat on Thursday.
Having issued a red-line warning to Iran not to slaughter civilians during mass protests earlier this month, Trump must now respond to that subsequent slaughter or risk diminishing the credibility of his future red lines. And while Trump had appeared to retreat from striking Iran, it may well be that he only did so to buy time for two other factors. First, the arrival of military forces in the region. Second, to meet Saudi Arabian and Qatari requests that he first engage in talks with Iran toward reaching a new nuclear accord. Trump’s latest threat suggests those talks haven’t progressed, however.
Next up, we have the sheer number and range of military assets now in the Middle East or set to arrive there very shortly. These include F-35 stealth fighter-bomber jets, air-to-air refueling aircraft, electronic warfare aircraft, combat search and rescue aircraft, and special operations units. Numerous aerial drones and other intelligence collection aircraft have also been deployed. B-2 and B-52 bombers could also be deployed into action directly from their home U.S. bases or the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. The finest air defense systems, such as THAAD, are also now positioned to guard against Iranian ballistic missile forces.
In addition, approximately 35 F-15 strike fighter jets have also been deployed to Jordan. A number of F-16 fighter-bombers have also been deployed to Saudi Arabia. These aircraft would be employed to assist in shooting down any Iranian ballistic missiles or drones fired against U.S. bases or Israel in retaliation for any U.S. attack. Most notably, the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is also now in the region. It carries a small air force of its own, its air wing including F-18, F-35, and other intelligence, radar, and supporting air squadrons. These join six destroyers, at least one attack submarine, and a guided missile submarine. Three mine clearance vessels are also now based in the Persian Gulf, out of Bahrain.
In short, a lot of finite military resources that are very expensive to deploy are now saturated around Iran. The success of the June 2025 B-2 strikes against Iran’s nuclear program means that Trump needn’t have assembled this buildup simply to exert diplomatic pressure on Iran. Instead, these deployments indicate advanced planning across the military’s Central Command in anticipation of a “Go” order from Trump in the coming days.
What will the president decide to do?
Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will have presented Trump with a number of military options ranging from major to limited to select in nature. But the grand mass of forces being arrayed suggests that any strikes will be more than simply symbolic in nature. CENTCOM appears to be preparing both for wide-ranging strikes and for operations to defend Israel in the aftermath of those strikes.
Still, it’s important that Trump chooses the right course of action as he rightly enforces his red line. Doing nothing, Trump risks the encroaching aggression that former President Barack Obama invited when he failed to enforce his own red line in Syria in 2013. Russian President Vladimir Putin noticed when Obama blinked, escalating in Syria and Ukraine. As did Chinese President Xi Jinping, escalating his efforts to establish military control over the South China Sea.
That said, it would be a serious mistake for Trump to target Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. That most aggressive course of action risks a major conflict that risks destabilizing the region and key trade routes while also diminishing U.S. military readiness and worsening munitions shortfalls. It would also be unlikely to bring down the Iranian regime.
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Instead, the president should order the bombing of a number of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters, barracks, and financial interests so as to punish the most repellent elements of this regime for their recent massacre.
That course of action will satisfy Trump’s interest in defending his credibility, in penalizing grotesque human rights abuses, but in a manner that serves America’s interest in avoiding significantly escalated conflict with Iran.
