The Texas Senate race has been a growing red flag for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, and it looks like the news from the Lone Star State just keeps getting worse.
First, the good news: Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) is the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination. In a poll from the University of Texas’s Texas Politics Project, Crockett leads Democratic state Rep. James Talarico by 12 points. Crockett is an incredibly polarizing, unlikeable candidate, a far easier general election opponent than Talarico for a Republican to fundraise against, mobilize the GOP base against, and win over swing voters.
TRUMP WITHHOLDS ENDORSEMENT FOR TEXAS SENATE GOP PRIMARY
Here is the bad news: Republicans are on track to do something similar in the GOP primary. Their Crockett-style candidate is state Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose approval is underwater at 34% to 43%. Paxton was dragged through an impeachment process (by the GOP legislature) in 2023, being suspended from office for four months while the legislature heard details about the accusations of bribery and abuse of office against him. Paxton was ultimately acquitted, but the stain is still there.
He is also currently leading in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Paxton is pulling 32% of the vote, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) sits at 29.3% and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) stays in the conversation at 21%. (Yes, Paxton is challenging an incumbent Republican senator, which makes the potential loss of this seat a completely avoidable disaster in waiting).
TURNING POINT ACTION ENDORSES KEN PAXTON IN TEXAS SENATE RACE
The worst news is that a Crockett-Paxton race could very well result in a Sen. Jasmine Crockett by this time next year. According to 270ToWin, Cornyn and Hunt both lead Crockett by an average of three to four points in polls. Paxton’s lead over Crockett is just one point, with the two of them being tied in an Emerson College poll from January. (Paxton is also the weakest candidate against Talarico, for what it is worth) Crockett is a toxic, obnoxious politician with a history of toxic and racist comments, and the only way she can become a senator is if she ends up in a race against a tainted candidate such as Paxton.
It is not likely that Republicans lose the Senate in 2026, but it is on the table, and it becomes a very real threat if the GOP blows an easy race against a toxic candidate in Texas. Even in a scenario where the GOP holds the Senate, giving someone like Crockett a spot in the upper chamber for at least six years would be a disaster for the country and for civility in our politics. A Paxton nomination is a disaster in the making, and it would be an entirely avoidable one for a Republican Party that refuses to excise the worst candidates in its midst.
