With energy markets and the global economy roiling, President Donald Trump made clear on Monday that he wants to see the Iran war ended sooner rather than later. Peace talks are likely to take place in Pakistan this week.
This is positive. Trump should first end Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint and eliminate new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei. But diplomacy should then follow.
The challenge facing the president is that Iran clearly senses it holds the strategic initiative. And by overly broadcasting his interest in excluding energy targets from the war and in cutting a deal as quickly as possible, Trump risks encouraging Iran to double down on the war.
As of Monday, Trump has offered optimism about a looming peace deal, ruling out further U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure unless Iran attacks allied energy infrastructure. The Trump administration has also granted Iran temporary sanctions waivers to sell its oil internationally. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will perceive these developments as clear indications that Trump is losing his nerve. That’s a bad understanding to proffer to these individuals. After all, the Guard has a high tolerance for pain and risk-taking, just as long as it believes those actions will ultimately serve it — hence why it’s continuing to fight hard even as much of its leadership, bases, and equipment lies in rubble.
Iran knows that the longer oil and gas supplies remain bottled up, the more pressure Trump will face from allies and domestic voters to blink. For Iran, Trump blinking best translates to a ceasefire that grants the regime the time and sanctions relief to rebuild its power with little cost to its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. That would make this war a strategic victory for Iran.
Although the United States rightly doesn’t share Israel’s maximalist objectives in this war, any credible peace agreement needs to impose durable, verifiable restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. And if Iran wants sanctions relief, it should also be forced to accept verifiable restrictions on its ballistic missile program.
To get there, however, Trump must ensure that Iran knows he will continue this war even if it grows unpopular. That’s why a bolstering of U.S. ground force deployments to the Middle East is important. Iran must recognize that U.S. military preparations for strikes or seizure operations on Kharg Island are not simply for show. Kharg is Iran’s energy aorta; without it, the country cannot generate foreign capital via energy sales. Without that capital, Iran’s already-decrepit economy would collapse amid an inability to import basic goods and sustain basic functions.
Trump is rightly wary of destroying Kharg’s energy facilities entirely. He knows that doing so would lead the regime to believe that any peace deal would leave it impotent, regardless. That’s why the U.S. is deploying Marine units specifically trained for amphibious assaults. He is also rightly skeptical about seizing Kharg. That operation may expose ground forces to very high risk without yielding Iranian concessions. On the other hand, seizing Kharg might also give Trump the leverage via which to force Iranian leaders into a malleable negotiating position. Regardless, Iran must know that Trump is willing to keep escalating if it fails to take the opportunity for peace. If not, there will be no good peace.
THE WAR IN IRAN WILL LAST AT LEAST A FEW MORE WEEKS
While escalation would increase global energy prices and economic uncertainty in the short term, Iran must recognize its energy blackmail strategy is not, as it currently seems, a perfect “get out of jail free card.”
Trump is right to seek peace, but he must be wary about getting a deal that is worth the paper it’s written on. If Iran senses Trump is buckling, it will only increase the pressure.
