A class of foreign policy commentators has spent the better part of four years insisting that Russia was winning in Ukraine, that Kyiv’s cause was hopeless, and that the West had only itself to blame for provoking the conflict. These same voices have now pivoted, with remarkable speed, to a new claim: the American campaign against Iran is a gift to Vladimir Putin. This line of thinking finds reasons to declare the American action a mistake. That is why their logic on Iran deserves the same skepticism as their logic on Ukraine.

The short-term case is easy enough to make, and it contains a grain of truth. America is busy with its campaign, and the skies over the Persian Gulf. Ukraine inevitably slips down the priority list. Oil prices have surged since the campaign began. Russia received a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing countries to buy Russian oil, handing Moscow fresh revenue at a time when financial pressure on the Kremlin was beginning to bite. For a few weeks, perhaps a few months, Russia may indeed benefit.