U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is being forced toward the exit of No. 10 Downing Street.
Over the past 24 hours, a growing chorus of Labour Party members of parliament have called on Starmer to set a timeline for his departure. As of publication, more than 80 of the party’s 403 members of parliament have called for Starmer to resign. Although 100 other MPs have thus far rejected calls for his resignation, it’s clear that the prime minister is in big trouble.
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Pressure on the former top prosecutor has been growing for months now. But aghast at disastrous local election results last week, many of Starmer’s party colleagues now want fresh leadership. They fear that without a dramatic shake-up, Labour will suffer a devastating defeat in the next parliamentary elections, which must be held on or before Aug. 2029. Nigel Farage’s Reform party holds a heavy lead in the polls and made big gains in last week’s elections.
In the U.K. parliamentary system, a party that can command a majority in the House of Commons parliament is able to elect its own leader and thus the prime minister without the need for a national election. National elections must be held every five years.
With approval ratings hovering around 22%, Starmer is deeply unpopular. His weakness takes root in the United Kingdom’s malaise of high rates of illegal immigration, weak economic growth, out-of-control spending, and high taxes. But the prime minister is also perceived as weak and generally uncharismatic. While he commands a significant parliamentary majority, Starmer has repeatedly backtracked on even moderate reforms when facing revolts by far-left parliamentarians.
Put simply, Britons are frustrated, and a plurality of Labour Party MPs now believe that if they’re to have any chance of keeping their jobs, they need change at the top. The latest poll projections suggest that, were an election held today, Labour would lose 250 to 300 of the 403 seats they currently occupy in the House of Commons.
It’s unclear what Starmer’s departure might mean for the U.S.-U.K. special relationship.
Although Trump has engendered British anger by insulting the sacrifice of British troops in Afghanistan and threatening NATO, Starmer has also done significant damage to U.S. relations. Still, out of the three frontrunners to replace Starmer — Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner — Streeting would likely be the best U.S. partner.
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The health secretary has shown rare courage by admitting that the U.K.’s vast welfare budget should be trimmed to free up funding for defense. In contrast, Rayner is a Labour leftist (a vein of the party long identified with anti-Americanism). Burnham is a populist who might see public disagreement with Trump as a means to boost his own standing. It should be noted, however, that any significant break with the United States would be catastrophic for U.K. security and military interests and profoundly negative for the U.K. economy.
The next 72 hours will be crucial for Starmer. But even if he can hold on, he is likely only delaying the inevitable.
