As Democrats get ready to seize control of the House of Representatives, a new poll provides a warning sign to them on one of the biggest looming questions of next year: the possible impeachment of President Trump.
The survey by Monmouth University finds that just 36 percent of Americans believe that Trump should be impeached and removed from office, compared with 59 percent who oppose the idea. What could make the issue particularly difficult to navigate is that impeachment is supported by 70 percent of self-identified Democrats while being opposed by 67 percent of independents.
Ideally, political leaders want to look for issues that unify their own party and split the opposition while appealing to swing voters. If I were to bet, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (or whoever else becomes speaker) would like to spend next year passing a flood of bills on economic issues such as raising the minimum wage, where there is agreement among Democrats and generally positive polling among the broader public. That way, when the GOP-controlled Senate blocks the legislation, Democrats have something to run on in 2020: “Elect us and we’ll enact all of these great policies currently being held up by Senate Republicans and Trump.” They won their majority by focusing on issues such as healthcare, not by talking about Russia.
At the same time, there is room for Democrats to feed the base of their party through various oversight hearings on Trump and administration officials. The poll shows that 52 percent of Americans believe holding Trump in check should be a “major priority” and an additional 20 percent believe it should at least be a “minor priority.”
The current skepticism toward impeachment could change dramatically, of course, if there’s some sort of shocking revelation from Robert Mueller’s investigation directly linking Trump to Russian interference in the 2016 election. At that point, the impeachment issue could become much more difficult for Senate Republicans to navigate. But for now, Democrats will have to tread carefully on impeachment.
