HARGEISA, Somalia — The desire to embrace cause-and-effect rationality to blame President Donald Trump for Iran’s ongoing aggression gets two things wrong.

First, the notion that the Islamic Republic would remain cautious and restrained had the United States and Israel not killed supreme leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of Operation Epic Fury ignores Khamenei’s age: The ayatollah was 86 years old and faced multiple health crises. Trump’s critics ignore that the eventual succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei would likely have remained the same.