Republican primaries and caucuses in the South are looking extremely hard for Mitt Romney to win, but he still stands to take the GOP nomination, especially if he pulls off victories in Ohio and Michigan, according to a new state by state analysis from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Their map shows a red brick of anti-Romney states in the southern center of the nation, home to religious conservatives that have so far gone to Rick Santorum, Romney’s nearest challenger. “It will be a surprise if Romney runs strongly in many of the remaining, leading evangelical states,” say the Center’s Kyle Kondik, Larry Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley.
But over all, they find, Romney’s momentum, organization and money could be what pushes the former Massachusetts governor first over the finish line. In fact, they note that even if the delegate race is close going into the June primaries, Romney should finish strong with victories in Utah, New Jersey and California.
“It is possible to conclude that Romney could be in better shape to win the nomination than he looks right now,” the trio write in an advance version of Sabato’s weekly Crystal Ball issued Thursdays. “While he is bound to take more losses over the next few months, particularly in Southern and Border states, Romney can go a long way toward becoming the GOP’s standard-bearer within the next month by winning Michigan and Ohio. Both will be major hurdles and neither will be easy. But then, for Romney, what really has been this year?”
In their review, only Santorum is offered as real challenger to Romney, in part because he has swept up evangelical voters. “Santorum appears to have two things in his favor,” they write. “First, religious conservatives, a key demographic in many forthcoming state contests, love him. Second, he is not Mitt Romney and has become the leading ‘not Romney’ candidate, an odd title that has determined a large chunk of the nominating battle so far.”
But, they note, his poor organization has kept him off the ballots in Virgnia and likely Indiana where he would have done well.
Washington Secrets will post the Crystal Ball when it goes live Thursday.
