Magellan Surveys has just released a poll in the special election in New York’s 9th congressional district which shows Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin 45%-40%. The last polling I saw showed this an even race. This is the district represented since 1998 by Democrat Anthony Weiner, and it is a descendant—though significantly redistricted—of the districts that sent Democrat Charles Schumer to the House from 1980 until his election as U.S. senator in 1998. It has convoluted boundaries and consists of mostly white portions of Brooklyn and Queens. Historically Democratic, it registered the biggest shift toward George W. Bush between 2000 and 2004 of any congressional district in the nation, going from 67%-30% for Al Gore in 2000 to 56%-44% for John Kerry in 2004. In 2008 it again trended slightly away from the Democrats, voting 55%-44% for Barack Obama. One unusual factor: it contains large Orthodox Jewish communities, and Republican Turner is undoubtedly benefiting from the perception that Obama has been cool to Israel, a perception strengthened by the strong support for Turner from former New York Mayor Ed Koch.
A Republican victory here, therefore, would have limited national significance: there aren’t too many districts with large Orthodox communities. But it would certainly be a counterweight to the Democratic victory in the ordinarily Republican 26th district in Upstate New York earlier this year.
