President Trump’s 2020 re-election chances could run through Michigan, and the early signs do not bode well for him.
A series of recent polls have shown residents of the state souring on Trump, and preferring every Democrat over him in hypothetical matchups.
To be sure, it’s ridiculously early. Democrats won’t even have a candidate for over a year. Once they do, Trump will unleash months of attacks on him or her. Furthermore, polls need to be somewhat discounted given that in 2016, nearly every poll showed Hillary Clinton beating Trump in the state, and yet he eked out a victory. Also, Trump’s electoral margin was large enough that he could afford a loss in Michigan if he holds Ohio, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
That having been said, given that Trump only won Michigan by two-tenths of a percent, or 11,000 votes, there is little room for error. A small uptick in turnout in Democratic strongholds and it would be lights out for Trump. And Michigan also may be a bellwether for rust belt states. Trump’s margin in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was also less than 1 percent.
And recent signs have not been encouraging.
Here’s what an Emerson poll found in hypothetical matchups in the battleground state:
Klobuchar v. Trump: 53%-47%
Sanders v. Trump: 52%-47%
Harris v. Trump: 51%-49%
Warren v. Trump: 51%-49%
In every matchup, the Democrat attracts a majority against Trump, even though name recognition is much lower among many of his rivals, a suggestion there’s a large “anybody but Trump” sentiment.
That is reinforced by other parts of the poll, which found that statewide, Trump has a 52 percent disapproval rating, compared to an approval rating of 40 percent; and an even higher number, 56 percent, say they are “unlikely” to vote for him.
This comes after another state poll conducted by EPIC-MRA found that 49 percent of respondents in Michigan said they would “definitely” vote against Trump, compared to just 31 percent who said they would “definitely” vote to elect him. These data are consistent with prior polls, and also in line with Democrats’ strong performance in the state in the 2018 midterms.
There will obviously be many news cycles in the next 18 months, but it seems as though Trump will be navigating some rough waters next year in a state that was central to his surprise victory in 2016.
