The Washington Post released a poll today showing President Obama beating Mitt Romney 51 percent to 43 percent in a head-to-head match-up. But before Democrats start celebrating too much they should look closer at the party identification breakdown of the poll’s respondents.
According to The Post’s results, 34 percent of those polled identified themselves as Democrats, 23 percent identified themselves as Republicans, and 34 percent identified themselves as Independents. That works out to an 11 point advantage for the Democrats. How does that compare to the turnout realities of the past four elections?
In 2004, the electorate was 37 percent Democrat, 37 percent Republican, and 26 percent Independent. Bush beat Kerry 51 percent to 48 percent.
In 2006, the electorate was 38 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican, and 26 percent Independent. House Democrats won 52 percent of the national vote compared to 44 percent for Republicans.
In 2008, the electorate was 39 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, and 29 percent Independent. Obama beat McCain by seven points 53 percent to 46 percent.
in 2010, the electorate was 35 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican, and 29 percent Independent. House Republicans won 51 percent of the vote compared to 45 percent for Democrats.
So the highest turnout advantage the Democrats have had in the past eight years was seven points in 2008, four points lower than the advantage The Post gave Democrats in their latest poll.
