As I noted earlier this week, June polls have shown Donald Trump dropping from the levels of early May, when he was at parity with Hillary Clinton, but they have not shown Clinton rising. Indeed, in head-to-head pairings Trump is at his lowest level since mid-August 2015, while Clinton is also at her lowest levels since polls began testing her against Trump. Familiarity is breeding something other than contentment.
In other words, although Trump is tanking, Clinton is not flying high. This, together with the majority unfavorable ratings both candidates receive in poll after poll, suggests there is considerable resistance to both parties’ presumptive presidential nominees.
This is a bit surprising. After Trump clinched the Republican nomination in the Indiana primary May 3, Trump and Clinton seemed to be getting the support of more than 80 percent of self-identified Republicans and Democrats. Their numbers were looking very familiar to those of us who have been poring over the returns of the last four or five presidential general elections.
Not so today. Some pollsters are now asking voters to select from three or four candidates, Clinton, Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson and, sometimes, the Green party’s Jill Stein. In the three-way pairings, with one exception, fewer than 80 percent and as few as 68 percent are choosing the major party candidates.
Similarly in the four-way pairings. In three-way pairings Johnson averages 8 percent of the vote. The few four-way pairings show an average of 5 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein. Johnson appears to be drawing about the same numbers from Clinton and Trump. Stein, as might be expected given her leftist platform, seems to be drawing more from Clinton.
It’s not at all clear that these numbers are right. It’s hard to gauge accurately support for minor party or independent candidates. If the pollster mentions one or more as an alternative, that gives them more visibility and almost surely more support than they would otherwise receive. If the pollster doesn’t mention them, that gives them less visibility than they might achieve and obviously less support.
The important point, I think, is that the polls signal potential flight — potential that might never be realized. Many voters are just not sold on candidates whom they regard so unfavorably. Which leads to the question — will such people even bother to vote?
