Is Pennsylvania once again in play in this year’s presidential race? A new CNN/ORC poll today shows Clinton leading there by just one point among likely voters.
This agrees with the latest Mulhlenger/Morning Call poll in Pennsylvania, conducted September 19-23, which shows Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump narrowing to three points (44 to 41) in a two-way pairing and two points (40 to 38) in a four-way pairing with Gary Johnson (8 percent) and Jill Stein (3 percent).
Clinton led by 9 and 8 percent in two- and four-way pairings in the Mulhenberg/Morning Call poll conducted September 12-16.
I found the regional breaks in the two-way pairing to be interesting. The following table shows those breaks with the Trump and Clinton percentages and the Romney and Obama 2012 percentages (as I calculated them). I’ve also got the corresponding figures from 1988 (see below).
| Trump | Clinton | Romney | Obama | Bush | Dukakis | |
| Statewide | 41 | 44 | 47 | 52 | 51 | 48 |
| Southeast | 26 | 57 | 38 | 60 | 52 | 48 |
| Southwest | 44 | 42 | 50 | 49 | 40 | 59 |
| Remainder | 57 | 31 | 56 | 42 | 57 | 42 |
Clinton is running roughly even with Obama 2012 in the Southeast, most of which is in metro Philadelphia and cast 46 percent of the state’s votes. Trump is running roughly even with Romney in the remainder of the state, which cast 33 percent. In the southwest, including metro Pittsburgh, they’re both running behind their parties’ 2012 nominees, but are running about even as Romney and Obama did in 2012. By the way, this is a sharp reversal from 1988, when George H. W. Bush lost southwest Pennsylvania by a wide margin, but carried the southeast by enough for a statewide victory. The steel and coal country then was reeling from recession and factory closedowns and blamed Republicans; now, 28 years later, it is more likely to be blaming Democrats for its woes.
The Mulhenberg/Morning Call and CNN polls are the only two public polls conducted in Pennsylvania since September 11, when Clinton collapsed at the 9/11 commemoration. The nine Pennsylvania polls conducted wholly or partially in August showed Clinton with an average lead over Trump of 46 to 38 percent; her lead in the RCP average of recnet Pennsylvania polls rose from 2 points in mid to late July to as much as 10 points in late August. With the latest Mulhenberg/Morning Call poll now in, that average has fallen in half, to 4.6 percent.
Democrats have been hoping that Georgia and Arizona—the states, after North Carolina, that Barack Obama lost but came closest to winning in 2012—would be in play this year, and when Trump was trailing Clinton nationally by a significant margin that looked possible. Now that it’s a close race nationally it doesn’t—and Pennsylavania, if other polls confirm the trend suggested by Mulhenberg/Morning Call poll’s latest result, looks like it is.
By my count, that leaves Clinton with significant leads in states and D.C. with 198 electoral votes and Trump with significant leads in states with 191 electoral votes. If you allot the remaining 149 electoral votes to the candidates currently leading in the RCP averages, you have Clinton 272, Trump 266. Now of course some of those state leads are exceedingly small and could be discounted, and if you regard Arizona in play you put the Trump states with significant leads at 180 electoral votes rather than 191.
Bottom line: it looks like a very close race.
