The largest state that’s likely to see a seriously contested U.S. Senate race in 2010 is Florida. Democrats Barbara Boxer and Charles Schumer seem safe in California and New York, and neither Texas seat is up. Unless, that is, Republican Governor Charlie Crist runs, an option he has left open.
The latest Quinnipiac Florida poll shows Crist’s popularity running high not only among his fellow Republicans but among Independents and Democrats as well. But there’s a note of caution: a significant 42%-26% plurality of voters would rather see Crist run for reelection as governor. In addition, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, a Republican, has indicated he’ll run for the Senate whether Crist does or not—a reversal of his previous position. Crist’s entire career has been in state politics, and the issues on which he’s won widespread popularity—a state insurance program, the purchase of USSugar lands to promote Everglades restoration—aren’t going to be particularly relevant in a Senate race.
If I were advising Crist, I’d advise him not to run for the Senate. Voters can sniff out when an officeholder doesn’t really want the job he’s seeking, and nothing in Crist’s career suggests he has any particular interest in serving in the Senate. His high job ratings are based on his performance as governor, and indicate that he’s a shoo-in for a second term; he probably won’t have any serious opposition, since the state’s highest-profile Democrat, CFO Alex Sink, has indicated she won’t run against him. But National Republican Senate Committee Chairman John Cornyn would probably like to see Crist run for the Senate. He would be a heavy favorite in what is otherwise very much an open race in a state that is very expensive to campaign in. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee has been outraising the NRSC by huge margins in recent cycles, and there’s every reason to believe it will be able to pour far more money into Florida than the national Republicans will.
The Miami Herald reports that the big leader in first quarter fundraising is not Rubio (with $211,000 cash on hand) but Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek ($1,615,000 cash on hand, including $324,000 from his congressional account). Rubio is also somewhat behind another Democrat, Miami Beach state Senator Dan Gelber ($295,000 cash on hand).
Moving north, pollster Scott Rasmussen has numbers on the Virginia governor race. He shows Republican Bob McDonnell leading the three Democrats who are competing for their party’s nomination—45%-35% against former Delegate Brian Moran, 45%-34% against former Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe and 45%-30% against Delegate R. Creigh Deeds. These are fairly impressive numbers for McDonnell, in a state that Barack Obama carried 53%-46% and that elected Democratic Governors Mark Warner in 2001 and Tim Kaine in 2005. But McDonnell is still under 50% in all three pairings, and it’s reasonable to suppose that the competing Democrats are dragging each other’s numbers down a bit as they compete in the June 9 primary. The winner will have plenty of time to refurbish his image between June and November.
