A couple of pointers to keep in mind while watching the Michigan results roll are in order.
1. Michigan allots its delegates by a winner-take-all by congressional district system.
2. Those delegates will be allotted under the pre-2012 map, meaning post-2010 census redistricting and reapportionment won’t factor into the equation. This could be crucial because Michigan is losing yet another congressional district this round and the population losses have been pronounced in some of the working class areas where Santorum has struck a chord.
(Saul Anuzis told me that “we designed the system” of winner-take-all by congressional district when he was state chair post-2008 “to maximize candidate participation,” offering that this would allow a candidate like Ron Paul to gain delegates by focusing on geographically concentrated support. Notable, because in 2008 Anuzis wanted Paul banned from GOP presidential debates.)
In 2008, the battle between John McCain and Mitt Romney was defined by proximity to Detroit. McCain won the Upper Peninsula district and came close to Romney in both Republican and Dem-held congressional districts. In the Detroit ‘burbs, Romney won both the historically Republican white collar Oakland County-based district and the one centered on Macomb County, this historical home of the Reagan Democrat.
In 2012, my hunch is that Romney will win comfortably the white collar suburbs – whether still Republican or now competitive – and lose the heavily-unionized Dem seats of John Dingell (the soon to be abolished 15th) and Dale Kildee’s 5th. The GOP 2010 pickup on the Upper Peninsula could go heavy for Santorum.
Here are the two districts to watch:
Rep. Candice Miller’s 10th district. Will Macomb County, will Romney’s name-brand carry the spiritual home to the Reagan Democrats by a wide margin as he did in 08?
Rep. Bill Huizenga’s intensely conservative 2nd congressional district. This is Michigan’s center of Dutch settlement where the conservative Calvinist Dutch Reformed Church retains strong influence. Historically, this area has been loyally Republican but with a stripe that’s been more conservative than other Michigan Republicans.
