Anything Karl Rove says about the Bush Administration or policy is to be taken with a grain of salt. But when it comes to elections, I give the man an ear. In the Wall Street Journal today, he considers the factors that will determine the outcome of this year’s election.
Republicans are winning when it comes to party trends in primary turnout, voter intensity in polls, and incumbent retirements. Democrats lead in fundraising:
Democrats can take heart from their party’s cash position. At the end of March, the Democratic National Committee reported $15 million on hand, while the RNC had $11 million, down substantially from the $23 million it had when Mr. Obama took office. The Democratic Congressional campaign had $26 million to House Republicans’ $10 million, while the Senate GOP was keeping things close, with $15 million to Senate Democrats’ $17 million.
Individual Republican candidates fare better in competitive Congressional races. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, GOP Senate candidates have collectively raised $176.3 million, outpacing Democrats’ $133 million. GOP House candidates have raised $240 million to Democrats’ $254 million.
Then again, fundraising isn’t everything, as several defeated House Republicans can tell you:
But spending isn’t everything. In 2006, the six GOP Senate incumbents who lost outspent their opponents by a 1.65-to-1 ratio and the 22 defeated GOP House incumbents outspent their opponents 1.53 to 1.
