Because of the regional and ideological split among the Democrats running for Virginia governor today, the deciding district will likely be the Tidewater region — down by Norfolk and Hampton Roads.
State Sen. Creigh Deeds is from southwestern Virginia and will pull heavily from that region — perhaps 2 to 1 over his opponents.
Former Del. Brian Moran is from Alexandria and folks from Northern Virginia are well accustomed to his last name, even though all the connotations are not positive. Beyond nepotistic alliegence Moran will get the hard-line, less-practical liberals from the urban precincts of the northern part of the state.
Terry McAuliffe is from Syracuse by way of Washington and has no natural geographic base of support in the state. That’s hurt McAuliffe in polling in which Deeds and even Moran have soared among voters expressing a preference. But the level of undecided vorters remained high right up to Election Day. Many of the undecided won’t vote, but neither will a lot of the folks who, out of geographic loyalty, expressed support for Deeds or Moran. In fact, about 90 percent of Democrats won’t vote.
When we look at the latest polling, we see that McCauliffe turns in his strongest performance in the Tidewater — the big region with no hometown favorite in the race.
Without a local running and with an accessible television market, McAuliffe’s saturation media bombing and multiple field offices should be able to drive people to the polls.
Plus, the region has a large black voter base that’s been inclined to support McAuliffe, the Tidewater could very well give the former DNC chair a big boost.
In the last Democratic primary in Virginia the Tidewater accounted for about 40 percent of the vote. Northern Virginia, meanwhile, made up less than 31 percent of the primary turnout. Tim Kaine was unopposed for governor, so turnout was lower, but there isn’t anything to suggest that the proportions should shift.
If McAuliffe’s high name recognition and big money have bought him a base in the Tidewater, he could be looking pretty good tonight.
