It would be unfair to say that today’s Supreme Court decision on Obamacare will decide this fall’s presidential election. But, unless some big national security emergency happens between now and November, no single event will more determine the outcome.

If the individual mandate is upheld, then the core of Obama’s signature domestic accomplishment will carry a stamp of approval from an ideologically center-right Supreme Court. This would not change Americans’ opinion of the law overnight, but it would significantly undercut Republican claims that Obama attempted to stretch federal powers far beyond those intended by our nation’s founding documents.

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