Despite their best efforts to blame House Republicans for the political stalemate in Washington, it is growing harder for Democrats to net the needed 25 seats to win back the majority and replace Speaker John Boehner with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. In his latest analysis for Washington Secrets, Kyle Kondik, the House editor for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said the wave of retirements favors the GOP.
So far 35 are on the retirement list and another six have resigned, 24 Democrats and 17 Republicans. “Ultimately, the retirements so far have hit Democrats a little bit harder than Republicans,” Kondik said. “Team Blue is weakened in a handful of districts where the exit of predominately conservative members boosts Republican chances,” he added.
At best, Democrats this year have predicted a pick-up of 10-15 seats, a figure the GOP doesn’t dispute.
Below is Kondik’s full memo on the impact of House retirements:
“But those figures don’t include members who decide to leave office voluntarily: Some retire because of age; some retire to avoid certain defeat; and others retire because — perish the thought — they are tired of being a part of the United States’ dysfunctional government.
“Tuesday’s announcement by Rep. Sue Myrick (R-NC) brings the number of retiring members to 35 during this cycle, according to Roll Call’s helpful list. That already exceeds the postwar average of 34 retirements per House cycle, according to Vital Statistics on American Politics. Vital Statistics’ historical count does not include members who resigned before the end of their term; six members have resigned so far this cycle, bringing the total number of retirements to 41: 24 Democrats and 17 Republicans. And, almost assuredly, the list of retirees will grow.
“Many members are retiring from seats that their parties are virtually guaranteed to keep. But some exits, like that of Blue Dog Democrat leader Rep. Heath Shuler (NC), will make it easier for the other party, in this case the Republicans, to capture the seat. Ultimately, the retirements so far have hit Democrats a little bit harder than Republicans; Team Blue is weakened in a handful of districts where the exit of predominately conservative members boosts Republican chances. Republican retirements do also open a few opportunities for Democrats, though those opportunities aren’t quite as obvious.
“So far, the overall effect of these House retirements could help Republicans net a few open seats next November. That could be decisive in a very close race for the House, but it’s also not a huge, added advantage for the GOP. Nor are those potential gains anywhere near guaranteed.”
