Specter sinking a bit

Sen. Arlen Specter may want to keep hanging out around President Barack Obama as he did Wednesday night in Beverly Hills, because the new polling numbers in Pennsylvania show some potential trouble ahead for the Senate’s newest Democrat.
The new Quinnipiac University poll finds that likely Pennsylvania voters go for Specter by 9 points over likely Republican nominee, former Rep. Pat Toomey in a hypothetical 2010 face-off. But on May 4, immediately after switching from Republican to Democrat, Specter was rocking a 20-point edge on Toomey.
Particularly of interest is the fact that Specter got only 16 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of Independents. Republicans also seem to be warming to the more moderate vibe Toomey is putting out. Tellingly, Specter’s approval and re-election numbers are both down in Western Pennsylvaina, where success is crucial for Toomey.
Specter will also now have to shore up his left flank a bit now that Rep. Joe Sestak, the retired rear admiral who represents the Philadelphia suburbs, is in the race. Big labor will use Sestak, despite his trailing by 29 points in primary polling, to try to pry Specter away from the middle on card check. And Specter, as we know well, is certainly subject to changing his mind as dictated by his interests.
For those reasons, one would expect to see the race get a little closer still.
On the plus side for Specter is that Obama has laid a big marker on Specter’s re-election and will make sure that he is not hurting for cash.
Also, Gov. Ed Rendell is getting closer to turning on his Philadelphia machine for Specter. Both Obama and Rendell have considerably higher job approval ratings in the state than Specter.
Toomey is also still relatively unknown. It’s telling for Toomey that he doesn’t do any better in a hypothetical matchup with Specter than another Republican mentioned for the job, Rep. Brian Gerlach. (Toomey carded 37 percent of the vote against Specter while Gerlach scored 36 percent)
A fiver-term incumbent with the backing of a popular president against an out-of-office Republiucan with no name recognition should be easy. But the fact that Specter has so quickly gone back to his pre-switch numbers reveals that he still has a fundamental problem with state voters, many of whom now see him as an opportunist and kind of a desperate figure.
If Toomey can stay safely in the middle, hammer away at job losses and deficit spending and, most important, spend millions and millions on building his own name identification and approval before Democrats can label him a wingnut, Toomey could still make it an interesting race.
Specter still has about a 75 percent chance of keeping the seat by my reckoning. But interest is growing as Toomey keeps making good moves and Specter keeps looking nervous.