Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will emerge from her victory in the Ames Straw Poll as the favorite to win the Iowa caucuses, but Texas Gov. Rick Perry will steal some headlines for beating out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — even though Perry’s name wasn’t even on the ballot.
There’s only so much you can tell from a straw poll result, but it is an early test of organization and voter enthusiasm, and Bachmann deserves credit for winning it. Earlier this week, I had predicted that Rep. Ron Paul’s rabid supporters would put him over the top. He came close, but Bachmann still edged him out 4,823 to 4,671. Still a strong showing for Paul, but this is likely to be his finest hour. As the campaign goes on and the electorate expands, his performance is likely to diminish due to his eccentric persona and foreign policy views that are outside the mainstream of the Republican Party.
For former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, it was a rough day. Not only did Perry’s entrance into the race make it more difficult for him to establish himself as the Romney alternative, but he finished a distant third, at 2,293 votes — or less than half as many as Paul. While it’s a respectable enough performance to stave off calls for him to drop out of the race, it’s unlikely to provide the sort of momentum boost he needed coming out of Ames. All along, it was hard to see a path to the nomination if Pawlenty didn’t win Iowa (or at least come really close), and it’s more difficult to see that happening now, especially with Perry’s entrance.
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (1,657) and former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain (1,456) likely did well enough for them to stay in the race, given they’re running more scaled-down operations. But Cain is unlikely to emerge as anything more than a niche candidate, though he may have done more damage in a pre-Bachmann world.
But really, after Bachmann’s win, the big story is going to be that Perry earned 718 votes as a write-in candidate compared to 567 for Romney, who did not contest the straw poll, but was on the ballot nonetheless. Coming on top of his successful announcement speech in South Carolina, Perry has really put the frontrunner on notice, and couldn’t ask for a better rollout. He’s is in New Hampshire now, and will hit Iowa tomorrow and Monday. We’ll have to see whether Iowans are forgiving about Perry stepping on the straw poll with his campaign announcement today, and whether he threatens Bachmann in her home state.
As for other candidates, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had 385 votes, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman had 69, and Rep. Thaddus McCotter, R-Mich. had 35.
Iowa doesn’t figure prominently into Huntsman’s strategy, so it doesn’t matter much to him, and Gingrich didn’t contest the straw poll, so he has an excuse, though still, it does reinforce questions about why he’s still bothering to run. As for McCotter? Yeah, I don’t have anything to say about that, either.
