It took a few days to become clear, but events last week at the Republican debate and straw poll in Orlando have dramatically reshaped the GOP presidential race. In a new poll from Fox News, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has regained the lead in the race, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has fallen to second place, and Georgia businessman Herman Cain has made a big leap into the contest’s top tier.
In the new survey, conducted from September 25 to 27, Romney has the support of 23 percent of respondents, while Perry is at 19 percent and Cain is at 17 percent. That’s a complete re-ordering of the race from the last Fox News poll, conducted August 29 to 31. In that survey, Perry led the race with 29 percent, Romney was second with 22 percent, and Cain was in fifth place, with six percent.
Romney’s support has remained remarkably stable at a time of great change in the race. While Romney is cruising forward, Perry’s support has dropped ten percentage points, while Cain’s has risen 11 points. (Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich came in fourth in the survey, with 11 percent, and all other candidates were in single digits.)
The pollsters did not ask respondents why they had changed their minds about Perry and Cain, but the last week has been filled with reports of Cain’s star-turn in Orlando — a solid debate performance followed by well-received speeches and a stunning win at the GOP straw poll — and Perry’s troubles, with a poor debate showing and a surprisingly decisive loss in the straw poll.
There are indications Perry knows he made mistakes in Orlando. In an interview with Newsmax Wednesday, he retreated from his statement at the debate that those who disagreed with him on the question of taxpayer subsidized in-state tuition for illegal immigrants had “no heart.” “I was probably a bit over-passionate by using that word and it was inappropriate,” Perry told Newsmax.
But while he admitted to a poor choice of words, Perry maintained that his policy position is correct, telling Newsmax that the issue “wasn’t about immigration — it was about education.” He also maintained his opposition to a fence for the full length of the U.S.-Mexico border. And Perry, who also opposes the use of the E-Verify system to stop employers from hiring illegals, placed most of the blame for immigration problems on the federal government, which he said has not “done its job through the years to secure our borders.”
It’s not clear whether Perry’s carefully limited concession will win him much support among Republican primary voters unhappy with his immigration stand. In recent days, the Perry and Romney campaigns have been engaged in harsh attacks on each other, releasing hard-hitting web videos not only on the immigration issue but also on education and the general issue of character. There is a possibility that if the two camps continue to bash each other, voters could become disgusted with both and move in still greater numbers to Cain. On the other hand, as the new arrival in the top tier, Cain will likely become the target of greater scrutiny and increased attacks in coming days, which will test his ability to stay in the top group. In any case, the events in Orlando have created a new Republican race.
