The decline in air travel seems to be holding steady but at a staggering decline of about 96%.
The airline industry is experiencing an unprecedented drop in airline traffic. As executives at United Airlines put it earlier this month, “Travel demand is essentially zero and shows no sign of improving in the near-term.”
A few weeks ago, I highlighted this with a chart based on data from the Transportation Security Administration, which tracks daily visits through checkpoints. I have now updated that chart to show the rapid drop to nearly nothing. On April 23 a year ago, there were over 2.5 million passengers going through checkpoints. Yet, on the same date this year (Thursday), there were just 111,627, a 96% drop.
To put it in context, in September 2001, the terrorist attacks caused a 34% drop in passenger traffic, compared with the same month the prior year.
It’s difficult to envision how the airline industry will be able to survive this intact, barring some sort of government intervention of historic proportions. Social distancing cannot really work in the context of air travel. Airlines make money on jamming as many people as possible on flights because much of the cost of a flight is baked in regardless of how many passengers are on the plane. Until there is a vaccine or major medical breakthrough of equivalent importance, people will not be getting on airplanes but for only the most truly essential travel.
Framed another way, the dilemma is that the public still needs airlines to be around for essential travel, but there’s no way for airlines to be able to survive servicing essential travel only.
Obviously, the pandemic isn’t going to end air travel permanently. It will return — at some point. But it won’t look like it does now. There will be a lot of destruction and rebuilding and ham-handed attempts by government to keep the industry afloat in the years to come.
