Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ongoing operation in northern Syria provides a stark illustration of Turkey’s military’s limitations. The operation, now nearly two months old, has a relatively limited area of action. And while the Kurdish forces that the Turkish military is confronting are experienced, well led and determined, they are also comparatively poorly armed.
On paper, the unity of Turkish armored formations, air power and infantry forces should have led to a decisive outcome by now. So why is Turkey struggling to displace the Kurds?
Put simply, I think it’s because the Turkish military’s intelligence and targeting, and command and control capabilities are well below par for this kind of operation. Erdogan is learning that it’s not enough to send a load of tanks into an enemy-held area. You’ve got to know what the enemy is planning next, where its command structures are located and how it is moving supplies to its frontline units. Instead, the Turkish seem to be running around northern Syria trying to find anyone they can attack.
Regrettably, the Turks seem aware of their failure, and in response have embraced indiscriminate targeting. In ongoing strikes around Afrin, we see the Turkish Air Force venting their tactical frustration in the form of wild bombing raids with no targets of military value. The video footage posted by residents of Afrin shows the results of strikes on market streets with civilian bodies crowded around food trucks and shop doorways.
Considering Erdogan’s penchant for self-obsessed assessments of reality, it is probable that these increasingly brutal Turkish strikes will continue as the Turkish leader grows more desperate for a decisive victory.
Instead, he should order his commanders to fill the gaps in their absent capabilities so that they are better placed to fight more effectively.
