Two weeks ago Florida Governor Charlie Crist’s decision to run for the Senate as an Independent rather than in the Republican primary looked like a winner. Pollster Scott Rasmussen showed him leading Republican Marco Rubio 38%-34%, with 17% for Democrat Kendrick Meek. Now Rasmussen’s latest numbers look different: Rubio leads with 39% to 31% for Crist and 18% for Meek. Crist was slightly ahead of Meek among Democratic voters two weeks ago; now he trails among them. This despite the fact that Crist’s job approval is a positive 57%-42% among all voters—numbers many other governors would be delighted to have.
All of which fortifies the judgment I made in a blogpost more than a year ago (to be precise, a year and five days ago) that Crist was unwise to run for the Senate while serving his first term as governor and would have been much wiser to run for reelection. I thought then and think now that Crist would have been in a commanding position in the governor’s race, while his chances in a Senate Republican primary against Rubio were far less favorable. I didn’t foresee then that Rubio would build up such a commanding lead among the primary electorate that Crist would run as an Independent. But that course is starting to look unpromising too. Crist’s initial support in the Senate race seems to be dribbling away, as usually happens with an independent candidate. Crist’s signature issues were state-governmemnt-specific; his rationale in the Senate race is hard to discern.
