Harry Reid’s decision to wait until September for a vote was a bit of a slap to the president, coming as it did the day after his reassertion that he wanted the deadlines kept.
But the move may have an upside for the Democratic health plan if the economy continues to improve. Moderate voters may have a better attitude about the plan if the Dow is up to 9500, second quarter growth rates aren’t as bad as they could be and the revised budget forecasts recently delayed by the White House aren’t as dire as some think they could be.
But there is another side to the equation.
We are now in the Obama phase of the recession. The president has proposed a massive reordering in the American economy but none of it has been implemented and the plans are still all gauzy good feelings and unicorn dust. Business owners know that there are many shoes still to fall, particularly when it comes to health care.
If you were a small business owner and knew that the House health plan would require you to provide health insurance for employees for all companies with payrolls of more than $250,000 and you had seven employees with a combined salary of $245,000, how likely would you be to add an eighth until the health care plan was resolved?
You might still make the hire even with the mandate, but in the face of uncertainty, it would only be prudent to hold off.
In carbon emissions, taxes and many other areas, the Obama agenda promises disruptive changes but not in a predictable fashion. The effect of this uncertainty on a business is to not spend, not hire and wait.
The Obama phase of the recession may hurt health care’s chances.
