Just three weeks ago, Mitt Romney was mired in second place in Iowa and had no plans to actively campaign in the state. But after Herman Cain collapsed, and Newt Gingrich emerged as the frontrunner, the Romney campaign saw an opening. He committed to the caucus, stepped up appearances, and began putting some positive ads on the air. And thanks largely to millions in attack ads from his supporters’ Super PAC, as well as tough ads from the Rick Perry and Ron Paul campaigns, Gingrich’s numbers then collapsed leaving Romney as the late favorite. Romney’s investment paid off last night when he won the Iowa caucus over Rick Santorum by 8 votes.
Romney finished with fewer votes (30,021 to 30,015) than he received in 2008, and he only matched his previous percentage ofthe vote (25%). But a win is a win, and it is made only more impressive by how little Romney campaigned in Iowa this year.
Now the race moves to New Hampshire where Jon Huntsman is already attacking Romney as a tool of big banks. He told The Huffington Post yesterday, “If you are the largest recipient of funds from Wall Street, and in particular the large banks, you are not going to be inclined to want to change that model. Because those who run those banks want no change, they profit off the status quo and clearly they are not going to be inclined to want to bring about any change.” Huntsman apparently is more than willing to attack Romney where other candidates didn’t.
Can Santorum compete with Romney in New Hampshire? A decision to skip the state would feed directly into Romney’s main attack on Santorum: He is incapable of waging the national campaign needed to defeat President Obama. So now we’ll see what Northeastern conservatives think about Santorum’s big government/compassionate conservative voting record.
Iowa Caucus
The Washington Examiner‘s Byron York: “Santorum could reasonably claim a moral victory because he had started so far behind and labored in obscurity for so long. But Romney won the actual victory, even if it was by just eight votes. And Romney did it far more easily than Santorum, attending a total of 38 campaign events in a mere 19 days in Iowa while Santorum attended more than 350 campaign events in 105 days in the state. If the caucuses were determined by bang-for-the-buck, Romney would have won in a walk.”
The Washington Examiner‘s Michael Barone: “It is too soon to say that Romney has a clear flight path to the nomination. But the tensions between his past record and current Tea Party orthodoxy have not proven to be disabling, because the other candidates are to varying extents out of line with that orthodoxy as well. Romney has had the benefit of luck — several strong competitors declined to run or dropped out — but also showed skill in deciding last month to ramp up his Iowa campaign. But he has yet to show he can beat an opponent one-on-one.”
The Washington Examiner‘s Phil Klein: “The night he won the caucuses, Obama addressed a crowd with thousands of supporters going wild. We haven’t seen any of the GOP candidates attract that sort of affection. Tonight’s big winner may turn out to be neither Romney nor Santorum, but Obama.”
AEI‘s Stephen F. Hayward: “I don’t think we learned much Tuesday night that we didn’t already know. We saw the continuing weakness of Mitt Romney; and now the attention will turn to Rick Santorum. Good for him; it is his moment, and the next eight days will constitute one of the greatest opportunities in modern politics. Regardless of how Santorum does in New Hampshire next week, I can only imagine how Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, John Thune, Sarah Palin, and even Jeb Bush must be kicking themselves for not getting in the race.”
RedState‘s Erick Erickson: “Anyone who says “this was a victory for retail politics” should be beaten with an Iowan cattle prod. … It only became successful when ever single other candidate had been vetted and imploded and there was absolutely no other person familiar to the voters who could stand as the non-Romney candidate. Had Santorum run a successful retail campaign and caught fire on his own accord, he’d have been vetted by now and probably also succumbed to the Romney machine. His campaign was not successful, it’s just all the others sucked so bad.”
National Review‘s Ramesh Ponnuru: “This tie is going to go to Santorum: When you have to explain a victory, you haven’t won one. (See Buchanan-Bush in the ‘92 New Hampshire primary.) … As for Santorum, there is some chatter that he should skip socially liberal New Hampshire and go straight to socially conservative South Carolina.”
The Weekly Standard‘s Fred Barnes: “Santorum’s candidacy is everything Romney’s isn’t. The former Pennsylvania senator’s campaign is hand-to-mouth. Romney’s is well-heeled. Santorum describes himself as ‘a full spectrum conservative’ with a special appeal to social conservatives. Romney is a pragmatist with moderate to conservative views who emphasizes his non-political background as a successful businessman.”
The Weekly Standard’s Jay Cost: “Iowa is a metaphor for the whole 2012 Republican nomination campaign. It is not as though Mitt Romney has increased the breadth or depth of his support relative to 2012. At least not yet. Instead, his advantage is due primarily to the weakness of his opposition.”
Campaign 2012
New Hampshire: Newt Gingrich purchased a full page ad in the Union Leader this morning attacking Mitt Romney as a “timid Massachusetts moderate.” But a new Suffolk University poll released yesterday showed Romney expanding his lead in New Hampshire.
South Carolina: Mitt Romney’s campaign is already airing $260,000 worth of TV time on statewide cable and in the major broadcast markets in South Carolina.
Romney: Sen. John McCain, R-Ari., will endorse Mitt Romney for president today.
Perry: After coming in fifth last night, Rick Perry announced he is returning to Texas to “determine whether there is a path forward.” He has more than $3 million left to spend.
Bachmann: Despite her sixth place finish, Michele Bachmann refused to drop out of the race this morning. “I believe I am the best conservative who can and who will beat Barack Obama in 2012. … In 2012, there could be another president in the White House. Who knows? There could be another Michele in the White House,” Bachmann said.
Around the Bigs
The Washington Examiner, Obama calls Iowa on GOP’s caucus night: President Obama addressed Iowa Democratic caucus goers last night via satellite from the Capitol Hilton in Washington. “In some ways, I’m actually more optimistic now than when I first ran. We’ve already seen change take place. 2012 is about reminding the American people how far we’ve traveled.”
USA Today, Obama to discuss economy, jobs in Cleveland: Obama will visit the Cleveland suburb of Shaker Heights today to deliver another speech on the economy.
The Los Angeles Times, Review urges delay in borrowing billions for bullet train: Finding that the current plan “is not financially feasible,” a key independent review panel is recommending California officials postpone borrowing billions of dollars to start building the state’s high-speed rail project.
The Washington Post, Iran threatens U.S. ships, alarms oil markets: Oil prices soared after Iranian armed forces commander Gen. Ataollah Salehi threatened to sink a U.S. aircraft carrier in the region.
The Wall Street Journal, China Takes Aim at U.S. Naval Might: China is building a new class of ballistic missiles designed to disable even the next generation of U.S. carriers.
The Washington Examiner, D.C. inspects Occupy camp after rat complaints: D.C. Department of Health officials inspected the Occupy DC camp at McPherson Square on Tuesday following complaints from residents and businesses about an increase in rats around the area.
Righty Playbook
Writing in National Review, Cato’s Michael Tanner details Santorum’s Big-Government Conservatism, arguing, “His economic message doesn’t align with current conservative trends.”
AEI‘s James Pethokoukis debunks Elizabeth Warren’s class warfare academic research.
John Lott says Obama has learned nothing from the mortgage meltdown mess.
Lefty Playbook
Talking Points Memo‘s Josh Marshall on Newt Gingrich’s concession speech: “Newt looked tired tonight. He looked all of his 68 years. But through that he’s mad. And Newt Gingrich has a great capacity for anger. He says he’s going to keep fighting for the nomination. And at some level I buy that. But what seemed much more clear is that he has a new goal in this campaign, maybe in life: hurt Mitt Romney.”
Think Progress reports that Obama believes he has the authority to make recess appointments, and will test that theory by appointing Rob Cordray to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau soon.
The Washington Post‘s Greg Sargent wants to know, “When will media demand that Mitt Romney back up his claims about jobs?”
