The exit poll sponspored by the BBC, ITV and Sky News projects that Conservatives will win 307 seats in the House of Commons, Labour will win 255 seats, Liberal Democrats will win 59 seats and other parties will win 29 seats. That would leave Conservatives 19 seats short of a 326-seat majority. More important, perhaps, that would leave the combined Labour and Liberal Democratic total also short of a majority. Under the unwritten British Constitution, it is considered proper for the leader of the largest party to become prime minister. However, the prime minister remains prime minister until he or she resigns and can try to construct a government that can command a majority.
But it should be remembered that British exit polls (like American exit polls) have been wrong before. I think it would be prudent to regard these numbers as lying in the middle of a range, e.g., Conservatives 297-317, Labour 245-265, Liberal Democrats 49-69.
What’s really surprising about these numbers is that they show the Liberal Democrats winning fewer seats than they did in 2005. This, even though the Lib Dems led in some polls after their leader Nick Clegg’s performance in the first televised debate April 15 and remained competitive for second place in the popular vote in the last pre-election polls. These numbers suggest that the Lib Dems lagged well behind those percentages in popular vote. If that turns out to be the case, all the talk about how Britain has suddenly moved into an era of three-party politics will remain just talk. But let’s wait and see.
