CONCORD, N.H. – Spend some time up here, and it’s no mystery why businessman Donald Trump finds himself at the top of the polls for the Republican nomination in the nation’s first primary. It also becomes apparent that beneath the surface, his candidacy has a soft underbelly and he could collapse by the time voters go to the polls in February.
Trump’s passionate base of support, organizational prowess, skills as a retail politician, craftiness at attacking opponents and ability to seize control of the media narrative were all on display Wednesday morning when he visited the state house to become the first major Republican to formally file candidacy.
Before he arrived, there was already a throng of a hundred or so people lining up in place holding Trump campaign signs. Not all of them were necessarily enthusiastic supporters (one man holding a Trump sign told me that he was undecided, but was holding the sign as a favor to a friend who is affiliated with the campaign).
Though former neurosurgeon Ben Carson has overtaken Trump in recent polls in Iowa and nationally, Trump still enjoys a double-digit lead in most New Hampshire surveys. Talking to supporters, it becomes instantly clear why his level of support has been so resilient in the face of attacks.
The problem for opponents is that the old model for damaging candidates — fixating on their controversial statements or pointing out their ideological deviations — doesn’t hurt Trump because he’s appealing to a different type of voter.
For instance, Alexis Chiparo of Concord, doesn’t hold Trump’s unconservative stances against him, because she herself is ideologically quirky. She said she was “really liberal” in 2004, but still voted for George W. Bush that year because she hated John Kerry. In 2012, she voted to re-elect President Obama, but in 2013, she changed her party registration to Republican after determining that Democrats had drifted too far left.
“I think that the country is not in a good place and I think that [Trump] is really the only one who can fix it,” Chiparo said. “And I think he’s the only candidate I see who puts Americans first and I think we need that now.”
Critics of Trump point out that some of his promises to fix things are unrealistic, but Chiparo is sober-minded about the limitations of the presidency.
“No president can fix everything,” she said. “Congress and bureaucracy all of that to contend with, but I think that he has great instincts and he as great record of success even though I know he’s had some business troubles like most people who have businesses run into that.”
As for his penchant for stirring up controversy?
“Sometimes I think he’s a little bit of a loose cannon, but I think that’s what we need,” said Paula Higgins of Bow. “This country has become so politically correct, that nobody can speak their mind without offending everyone and he doesn’t care about that. He speaks his mind and he tells it like it is.”
Higgins said she liked that Trump didn’t have any experience in public office, because to her that just means that he doesn’t have the constraints of other office holders, and he isn’t beholden to big donors and special interests.
When Trump arrived, he was mobbed by his supporters — and he seemed to be having fun working his way through the crowd, taking time to sign autographs and banter with his fans. They shouted at him things like, “Mr. President,” “Thank you for running!” and “You the man!”
Trump ate it up. “We have a special bond with the people in New Hampshire,” Trump said. He reassured one autograph seeker, “Come on, don’t be nervous.”
As he was signing a copy of Rolling Stone, one person asked him, “Do you think Rubio will ever be on the cover of that magazine?” and Trump responded, “I don’t think so, gotta straighten out his credit cards.”
As he made it to a set of microphones in front of the state house for a press conference, the crowd erupted to chants of “Trump! Trump! Trump!” and he encouraged his supporters to come closer.
“Get my people up here,” he said. “Don’t worry about the press. Come on up, circle us.”
Trump knows that campaign reporters thrive on pitting the candidates against one another, and he’s happy to exploit that tendency for his own purposes.
During his press conference, the first question he got asked was about Rubio — and he didn’t need much prodding.
“Marco Rubio has a disaster on his finances,” Trump said, encouraging the reporter to look into the matter more, and daring her, “let’s see what you find, let’s see what kind of a reporter you are.” Sure enough, later that day in Manchester, half of Rubio’s press availability was dominated by questions about Trump’s attack on his finances.
Asked about Jeb Bush’s declaration that “I’m a doer, not a talker,” Trump began mocking his rival.
“Jeb Bush says he’s not a good talker,” he said. “Why would he admit that? If he’s not a good talker — and let’s assume that’s a fact — why would you say — I watched him, he goes, ‘I’m not an entertainer. I’m not a good talker. I don’t speak well. I don’t debate well. I don’t do anything well. Vote for me.’ Why would you say these things? This is what’s going to negotiate with China? This is what’s going to negotiate with Iran?”
Not only does this land a punch on Bush while his campaign is struggling, but it also provides a window into how Trump approaches public relations. He believes that if he says he’s the greatest all the time, he’ll convey strength and confidence — and so he’s perplexed that anybody in the public spotlight would say anything that could be interpreted as weakness. And one can see how this message has been absorbed by voters.
“I want somebody strong and powerful who can deal with China, who can deal with Mexico, that’s what I want,” said Barbara, a Trump supporter from Concord.
In contrast, she says “no, no” when asked about Bush. “I loved his brother,” she explained. “But Jeb isn’t going to make it. He’s not forceful enough.”
Despite all of these signs of strength, however, it’s quite possible that things can fall apart for Trump over the next few months.
The reason is that, according to a recent poll by Monmouth University, just one in five voters in New Hampshire say they have definitely made up their minds about who they want to support.
Residents here take pride in waiting until they’ve had a chance to see all of the candidates, often multiple times, before getting behind somebody. Several candidates are first starting to ramp up their efforts in the state and there are so many variables between now and election day. And when it comes time to vote here, Iowans will have already started to sort out the field in ways that we can now only guess.
Talking to voters at a Rubio event in Nashua on Wednesday night, even those who described themselves as completely undecided were echoing many familiar criticisms of Trump — that he’s arrogant, narcissistic and not even a Republican.
“Donald Trump is saying a lot of things that people like to hear, but there isn’t a lot of substance to back up the statements,” said Richard Harrington of Nashua.
Barry Devine of Goffstown said, “I don’t want him sitting across the table from [Vladimir] Putin. It would be a third world war. You don’t tell the president of Russia to go screw himself. I don’t think he’s got the temperament.”
And Barry Nilson of Amherst lamented, “I think he’s very contentious. Like Hillary [Clinton], who wants to follow somebody who wants to fight all the time?”
Polling also backs up the idea that Trump’s shtick isn’t wearing well on many New Hampshire voters. The Monmouth survey found that he went from a 54 percent to 36 percent favorable/unfavorable rating in September, to a 49 percent to 43 percent rating late last month/early this month. In contrast, Rubio was up to 62 percent favorable and 19 percent unfavorable in the recent poll.
If the softer Trump support melts away and undecided voters break to another candidate, Trump will be fading by the time the voting starts. Though Trump is undeniably strong as of now, his path to defeat is also becoming clearer.
