I can’t think of a time when poll numbers have shown us quite so clearly the shift of opinion in a campaign as clearly as those from Florida this cycle.
Let’s start with the seven polls conducted between Thanksgiving and Christmas, at a time when Newt Gingrich was riding high in national polls. The table shows the dates of the earliest and latest interviews and the average percentages for Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, the candidates now remaining in the race, and the percentage margin for the leader over the candidate in second place.
Nov 28-Dec 19 23 41 1 6 Gingrich +18
No public polls were conducted in Florida between Christmas and the Iowa caucuses January 3. The Iowa Republican party announced late that night that Romney had beaten Santorum by 8 votes; 16 days later it announced that Santorum led Romney by 34 votes, with eight precincts not reporting and their results irretrievable. In any case, the Florida numbers showed double digit increases for Romney and Santorum and a double digit loss for Gingrich.
Jan 4-8 36 24 16 8 Romney +12
Romney beat Paul by a 39%-23% margin in New Hampshire, with Santorum and Gingrich fourth and fifth. Florida moved toward Romney and marginally away from Gingrich and Santorum.
Jan 11-17 43 21 14 9 Romney +22
One poll was taken straddling the January 21 South Carolina primary, where Gingrich beat Romney 40%-28%. The movement toward Gingrich was clear.
Jan 19-23 36 34 13 10 Romney + 2
That movement was even clearer in the polls taken between the South Carolina primary and the first Florida debate January 23. Polling conducted on that day does not take into account voters’ exposure to the debate, since pollsters typically stop interviewing at 9pm, the time the debate started.
Jan 22-23 31 36 11 9 Gingrich + 5
The one poll conducted straddling the first Florida debate showed clear movement to Romney
Jan 22-24 36 34 11 9 Romney + 2
Seven polls were conducted after the first Florida debate and through the day of the second Florida debate January 26. That debate began at 8pm, but it seems safe to say that relatively few respondents were watching it before they were interviewed.
Jan 24-26 40 30 12 9 Romney +10
There were no public polls conducted on Friday, January 27, and just two have been reported at this writing as being conducted on January 28. The numbers look pretty much like those just above.
Jan 28 42 30 13 9 Romney +12
Of course we must still await the result of the Florida primary, and there is always the possibility of a surprise. But the flow of opinion seems fairly clear. Florida Republicans, like those nationally, swung heavily toward Newt Gingrich between mid-November and mid-December, but their attachment seems never to have been strong. Nearly half his support vanished after Iowa and went, in about equal numbers, to Romney and Santorum.This was also the moment when Santorum, despite not quite being declared the Iowa winner, came closest in Florida to the two leaders—8% behind the second-place Gingrich.
New Hampshire gave Romney a significant bounce in Florida, and apparently stronger support than Gingrich had enjoyed before the first of the year: Romney was at 43% the week after New Hampshire and even after South Carolina held about three-quarters of his support to bottom out at 31%. Gingrich’s post-South Carolina peak of 36% was a bit below his post-Thanksgiving 41%, and it has fallen off after the two Florida debates, though not hugely. What is clear is that Romney clearly surged after the first debate and sustained that position after the second and that Rick Santorum, despite good debate performances, did not.
