Following his two inept debate performances last week, Newt Gingrich’s campaign appears to be in free-fall. Three new polls this weekend showed Mitt Romney opening up double-digit leads on the former Speaker of the House. A Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon poll had Romney up 42 percent to 31 percent, NBC News had Romney up 42 percent to 27 percent, and Rasmussen Reports showed Romney with the biggest lead at 44 percent to 28 percent.
Gingrich insists that he is in the campaign for the long-haul. And if Gingrich was a principled, conviction politician, that may be a credible threat. But he’s not. Gingrich is a professional Washington insider who can only generate revenue for himself and clients by maintaining an image of political formadability. A double-digit loss to Romney in Florida on Tuesday will make it very difficult for Gingrich to maintain such an image the longer he stays in the race.
Newt’s campaign hopes he can survive through March and April when he can realistically hope for strong showings in the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana primaries. But he has to get to March first. And before then Gingrich will likely suffer losses in the Nevada, Colorado, Maine, and Minnesota caucuses. He will also have to go without debate-related free media until Feb. 22 in Arizona. And Romney is favored in the Arizona and Michigan primaries on February 28th.
Super Tuesday on March 6th looks more favorable to Gingrich with contests in Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. But can he field professional campaign operations in all these states? Also on the Super Tuesday lineup is Virginia where Gingrich won’t even be on the ballot thanks to his campaign staff’s failure. There is, in short, little reason to see the road ahead favorably for Gingrich.
Commenting on Gingrich’s chances of lasting till the convention, University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato told The Washington Examiner‘s Susan Ferrechio, “The odds still heavily favor a clear decision during the primary season. At some point, if the [his rivals’] money dries up and the percentage of the vote dwindles from week to week, reality crashes down like a stage curtain.”
Six-figure Tiffany’s bills don’t pay themselves. At some point, Newt’s losing streak will dry up the campaign money well. Gingrich will not go into debt just to spite Mitt Romney.
Campaign 2012
Poll: A Gallup poll of a dozen swing states (including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin), shows Mitt Romney beating President Obama 48 percent to 47 percent. In ahead-to-head match up with Obama, Gingrich is trounced by Obama 54 percent to 40 percent.
Florida: The Mitt Romney campaign and the super PAC Restore Our Future had spent a combined $15,340,000 on Florida advertising so far. Newt Gingrich’s campaign and the super PAC Winning Our Future have spent only $3,390,000.
Romney: Mitt Romney’s campaign is refusing NBC News’ request to pull its ad made up entirely of footage of Tom Brokaw reporting on Newt Gingrich’s ethics violations. The Romney campaign says the ad is perfectly legal under the “fair use” doctrine of copyright law.
Gingrich: Campaigning in Florida, Newt Gingrich said he would criminalize all research into embryonic stem cells and may even increase federal regulation of in vitro fertilization.
Around the Bigs
The Wall Street Journal, Money From MF Global Feared Gone: Experts believe an estimated $1.2 billion in missing MF Global custthe firm ran by Obama-bundler and former New Jersey Democratic senator and governor Jon Corzine, will never be found.
The New York Times, Ruling on Contraception Draws Battle Lines at Catholic Colleges: Catholic organizations are resisting a new Obamacare regulation that would force them to provide birth control assistance to students.
The Hill, No benefit from tax holiday, say a majority of voters: A majority of voters say they have not benefited from President Obama’s payroll-tax holiday, according to a Pulse Opinion Research poll.
Oakland Tribune, Almost 400 arrested in Oakland Occupy protests: Almost 400 people were arrested during a series of Occupy Oakland marches and protest actions Saturday that included a group breaking into and vandalizing City Hall.
Sacramento Bee, Occupy protest seizes UC Davis building, blocks bank: Occupy Wall Street protesters have seized a vacant UC Davis campus building and are sporadically blocking consumer access to an on-campus bank.
Righty Playbook
Paul Ryan dismantles President Obama’s crony capitalist agenda on Fox News Sunday.
Verum Serum posts audio from 2009 showing Newt Gingrich supporting a federal mandate to buy health insurance.
Ross Douthat looks at how Obamacare’s birth control regulations show how big government crowds out civil society.
Lefty Playbook
Talking Points Memo posts a chart showing incomes and effective tax rates of the last five presidential candidates.
Daily Kos‘ Joan McCarter reports that Democrats will introduce a “Buffett Rule” tax bill that they will seek to get a stand-alone vote on.
The Washington Post‘s Ezra Klein says it is unfair to compare the Obama and Reagan recoveries.
