ALLENTOWN, Pennsylvania — Were this a normal presidential primary in this swing state, the colorful red, white, and blue parade of supporters lining Route 100 to Industrial Boulevard to celebrate President Trump’s arrival in the Lehigh Valley would have been one of those telltale signs to gauge what to expect on primary day.
But this is no ordinary year in Pennsylvania, and this is no normal presidential primary.
“We are voting in a new way in a battleground state, and that’s all this primary is about; the comfort level people have with mail-in voting,” explained Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia media consultant and longtime Democrat.
Ceisler said that in itself is of importance nationally because of this state’s importance as a bellwether of all things political.
“Once again, the Pennsylvania vote is about a central theme that is going to be important across the country come November, and that is, do people develop a comfort level with voting by mail?” he said.
Six weeks after the original primary date of April 28, voters in Pennsylvania will finally be casting their ballots on Tuesday; and while many political campaigns and data crunchers will be looking at the partisan turnout and what that means about voter enthusiasm for the fall, they will also be looking to see how Pennsylvanians adapt to voting during a pandemic.
As well as how smoothly the counting process goes at the individual county level, concerns range from mail-in ballots that are never received to what happens at the drastically reduced number of polling sites for those who vote in person.
“Folks on both sides of the aisle are going to be anxious to see how many voters go from requesting a mail-in ballot to actually filling it out and mailing it in, they are also looking to see if all the ballots that are mailed in are received,” said Guy Ciarrocchi, the CEO of the Chester County Chamber, and a Republican. “Everyone will also be looking as to who shows up in person and what that experience is like.”
He said, “It is going to be interesting to see how well this very new process performs in a state, which up until this primary, required a very specific excuse such as illness or travel, as well as the evidence to back it up for people to be able to mail their ballot in.”
A new state law enacted last year did away to the tight restrictions required for people to receive an absentee ballot in this state; previously, less than 5% of voters mailed in their votes.
Then came the coronavirus pandemic, and that changed everything. “We went from 90-plus percent of people voting in-person to the probability of 90-plus percent of people voting by mail,” said Rich Fitzgerald, the Allegheny County chief executive.
To date, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State, over 1 million voters in the state requested mail-in ballots, with Democrat requests outnumbering Republican requests 2 to 1.
The mail-in request numbers are reflective of the state’s voter registration, which is 2 to 1 Democrat over Republican. The expectation is Republicans will show up in force in person.
As with everything these days, how we vote is polarized. A recent Pew Research Center poll showed 87% of Democrats support mail-in voting, while Republicans are split, with 49% favoring it, and 50% opposed.
Fitzgerald, a Democrat, who decided to vote by mail, said he will miss that experience. “I love the pageantry of the experience, from the people handing ballot cards outside of the polling stations to seeing your neighbors to the coffee and handshaking,” he said of voting day in his Squirrel Hill precinct.
David La Torre, a Harrisburg-based public affairs executive and Republican, said he is primarily looking for who has enthusiasm.
“I just want to see how many people show up and take the time to vote for Joe Biden versus how many Republicans take the time during a pandemic to vote for Donald Trump. If either of their numbers loom large in any way, I think that is the strongest indication of who could carry the day in Pennsylvania in November,” he said.
The number of supporters who turned up to greet Trump here with only the ability to wave at him in the presidential car and zero chance of seeing him are reflected in a recent ABC/Washington Post poll released at the end of March, that strong enthusiasm for Trump among his base was at 53 percentage points, Biden inspired just 24%, the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Washington Post polls.
Biden has spent most of the pandemic in his Delaware basement, holding virtual rallies and conducting interviews, including one where he said African Americans “ain’t black” if they even considered voting for Donald Trump; a line Keystone College professor Jeff Brauer said sounded like Biden was taking the black vote for granted.
Brauer said he is looking to see if the former vice president’s insulting quip will impact him in Philadelphia, where the majority of voters are black.
“Given that urban African Americans have been hit hard with the pandemic and the subsequent economic downtown, they have a lot on their plates, which may make voting more difficult,” he said. “Biden can’t afford to lose their enthusiasm, and most especially their votes if he expects to win Pennsylvania in the fall.”
A drive back and forth across the state along both US Route 22 and US 30 found a sprinkling of Bernie Sanders signs. He, along with Hawaiian Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, will still appear as a choice for Democrats voting for their pick for their party’s nominee, along with presumptive nominee Biden.
There were also clusters of signs for local politicians who are engaged in local primaries; all of the congressional house seats, state house seats, statewide row offices, and half of the state senate races are all on the ballot this year.
There were also plenty of Trump for President signs along both routes. He faces both Bill Weld and Roque Rocky de la Fuente on the Republican ballot for president.
Ceisler said on Tuesday Pennsylvania is basically giving the country a dress rehearsal for the seamlessness of massive mail-in voting in a battleground state, “So it is important that we get things right on the front and back end, but the results will also be a gauge of enthusiasm in arguably the most important states for the Democrats.”
