Donald Trump is no longer President of the United States, but even without a Twitter account from which to lob rhetorical bombs at his adversaries, Trump has held sway over the Republican Party via proxy battles among congressional Republicans and rumblings about his potential next moves.
There are several theories about what Trump’s appeal to Republicans was all about and why it might stick around. Is it a cult of personality about Trump alone? Is it a policy agenda that reorients the party in a more populist or big-government direction?
I think Trump’s persistent influence is not about a person or a policy. It is instead about how he satiated and intensified the strongest hunger Republican voters have today: an appetite for a fight.
It’s largely the case that people of both parties view their own party as weak and overly conciliatory while the other party is stronger, better organized, and more willing to bend or break rules to secure power. Trump’s rise in the GOP coincided with a moment where Republicans were more likely to view their own party unfavorably.
In the 2016 Republican primary, of the 17 candidates, 16 gambled that the fight for the future of the party would be about who was viewed as most conservative on a Left-Right axis. All 16 had it wrong.
What Trump understood was that the axis that mattered to Republican primary voters most was not Left-Right, but rather weak-strong. As far back as October 2015, polls were finding Trump was considered the strongest of the candidates by Republicans. From the Associated Press at the time:
“It’s the lifelong establishment politicians on both sides that rub me the wrong way,” said registered Republican Joe Selig, a 60-year-old carpenter from Vallejo, California. “I think Trump is more electable. He’s strong. We need strength these days.”
This persisted during Trump’s presidency, as well. Eight in 10 Republicans described Trump as a “strong leader,” and even a majority of Democrats would concede that Trump “stands up for what he believes.”
In my research, whenever I speak to Republican voters, they will often acknowledge there are things they do not love or would change about Trump. Perhaps there are positions of his with which they disagree. But they stick with him because he fights.
This is also how Trump himself approaches things. Consider this blockbuster Axios account of an Oval Office meeting in the final days of Trump’s presidency, where lawyer Sidney Powell allegedly pushed him to use national security powers to seize voting machines. Powell’s argument to Trump is effectively Trump’s argument for himself to his own supporters about the rest of the GOP: “They’re not willing to fight for you because they don’t want to get their hands dirty.”
In this account, Trump acknowledges that Powell and her team have been sloppy in their handling of the legal fight and is not completely sold on her wild claims. Nevertheless: “Trump expressed skepticism at various points about Powell’s theories, but he said, ‘At least she’s out there fighting.'”
This is nearly verbatim what I have heard from Trump supporters in research time and again. Yes, maybe he’s a little out there. Yes, he can be a little sloppy with his words. But at least he’s out there fighting.
This is not exclusive to Trump. Consider the defiance of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has embraced wild conspiracy theories and has positioned herself as an inheritor of the Trump legacy in the House. The real enemy, in her view? “Weak Republicans who only know how to lose gracefully.”
Trump’s influence on the party in the near term won’t be a policy agenda or even his personal ability to play kingmaker. In October 2020, 59% of Republican voters thought of themselves as Trump supporters more than Republican supporters. After the inauguration, Trump-firsters had fallen to 38% of the party, with 48% saying they think of themselves as party supporters first.
Furthermore, Trump’s ability to anoint winners in primaries has its limits when his chosen horse is up against someone who is better on the “fighter” metric. Trump endorsed the primary opponents of both Rep. Lauren Boebert and Rep. Madison Cawthorn, both of whom prevailed anyway. When push comes to shove, “but they fight!” even trumps Trump.
Republicans believe the stakes these days couldn’t be higher. When asked if they think politics is more about enacting public policy or ensuring the survival of the country as we know it, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to view politics these days as a fight for survival — and Republicans who think of themselves as Trump supporters first and foremost are the most likely to hold that view.
Trump’s legacy in the party isn’t policy, and it isn’t a person. It’s a posture — a fighting posture in a moment where Republicans think the fight is what matters most.
