Democrats are hoping to ride a suburban backlash against President Trump to victory in 2020, as they did in 2018. But this suburban strategy could be seriously undermined by the positions their presidential candidates have taken on healthcare during the Democratic primaries.

Trump’s brand of populism has disrupted the political map, bringing more blue-collar areas into the Republican fold while making white-collar suburbs, where female voters, in particular, have been turned off by the president’s brash style, more fertile ground for Democrats. Even as Democrats have many factors working in their favor in these neighborhoods going into 2020, there’s another factor cutting strongly against them. Put simply, Democratic healthcare proposals that would disrupt or eliminate private insurance are like heat-seeking missiles targeting voters in these relatively well-off suburban communities, where residents overwhelmingly have solid (and private) healthcare coverage.