People say that foreign affairs don’t matter in American elections. They are wrong. Foreign affairs often influence electoral outcomes. Former President Jimmy Carter’s weakness before the Iranian Revolution of 1979 helped sink him in 1980. Former President Ronald Reagan’s tough talk on the Soviet Union was part of his appeal. Former President Bill Clinton’s sweet nothings about an American-led world were central to his seduction technique. Former President George W. Bush won as a war president in 2004. Former President Barack Obama won twice as an anti-war president. Former President Donald Trump may be about to do the same.

The “war on terror” was such a disaster that every winning candidate since 2008 has sounded the note of American retreat from the world. President Joe Biden sounded it loud and clear in his 2020 campaign. Candidate Biden criticized then-President Trump for assassinating Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds Force, which is the division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps tasked with expanding the revolution beyond Iran’s borders. “The world has changed because of what Trump has done,” Biden said. “As the walls close in on this man, I’m worried he’s going to get us into war with Iran. Unfortunately, I may be right.”