IT’S STILL CLOSE. In recent weeks, especially since the presidential debate, a number of Republicans and media observers have declared that former President Donald Trump is the solid favorite to win the election. You know who is skeptical about those declarations? Donald Trump. The former president knows the race is still close in several key states and — he knows this better than anyone — that Democrats have gone to, and will go to, extraordinary lengths to stop him. So he is a little bit superstitious about any confident predictions of a Trump victory.

And indeed, the race is quite close. In the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Trump is leading President Joe Biden by 2.9 percentage points, 47.4% to 44.5%. Trump’s lead is actually down a little from the 3.4-point advantage he had on July 7. That could indicate that Biden has bottomed out of his post-debate tailspin and is now stabilized or even rising in the polls.