On Tuesday, Loudoun County supervisors will make one of the most important decisions of their careers by voting to either “opt in” or “opt out” of Dulles Rail, Phase 2. Supervisors are under intense political pressure to opt in, even though doing so means yoking their constituents for decades to a terribly flawed transit project that does not meet basic public standards in a number of key areas:
Accountability: The secretive Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority board managing the Silver Line project does not answer to any elected officials in Virginia or Washington and still refuses to seat two new board members appointed by Virginia’s governor.
Financing: Phase 2 fails to meet the federal government’s cost-benefit standards, which is why — unlike Phase 1 and every other transit project of its size in the nation — it’s not getting any federal money. The financing plan has Dulles Toll Road commuters paying 75 percent of the $2.7 billion cost, forcing tolls up to $18.75 by 2048. If drivers balk, as they surely will, MWAA could default on its bonds.
Congestion relief: The project’s own Environmental Impact Statement predicts failing levels of service on the Dulles Toll Road and other major thoroughfares, whether Phase 2 is built or not. If it is built, some 30,000 drivers will crowd onto congested local roads to evade ever-rising tolls.
Cost: The original cost of the entire 23-mile project was $3.1 billion, including underground stations in Tysons Corner and Washington Dulles International Airport. Ten years later, the price has nearly doubled to $5.9 billion, even though the tunnels were abandoned and the cost of stations and other infrastructure was dumped onto Fairfax (and potentially Loudoun) taxpayers.
Economic development: Phase 2’s oft-touted economic benefits are based on pre-2008 predictions that do not take into account current economic conditions or the effects of down-zoning on Loudoun’s future population growth. A more recent analysis shows the net fiscal impact will be a $713 million loss if Loudoun opts in, but a $600 million gain if supervisors vote to opt out.
Transparency: MWAA refuses to answer Freedom of Information Act requests, and its no-bid contract for Phase 1 has never been publicly released. And MWAA still has not provided updated ridership projections or an updated economic feasibility study.
Loudoun supervisors can use their leverage to demand major changes that protect county taxpayers. Unless they get an excellent deal from MWAA, opting out is the only responsible thing to do for now.
